Currently, given the high demand for railway transport services both in the world and throughout the Russian Federation, scientists are increasingly paying attention to research in the field of fire safety of passenger cars of railway rolling stock. These studies are, on the one hand, very important, and on the other hand, very complicated, since they require the simultaneous involvement of researchers involved in the fields of transport, security, and engineering sciences. The main goal that all research in the field of transport safety seeks to achieve is to reduce the risks of people's loss of life in combination with optimal organizational and economic conditions for the functioning of railway transport. In the event of emergency incidents associated with fires in passenger cars, it will take a considerable time to completely stop the train and rescue people, which can negatively affect railway traffic and create additional risks for railway service. In the present scientific article, the main indicators that contribute to the rapid development of fire in double-deck cars are simulated based on the statistical analysis of models for predicting the fire development dynamics. The authors consider three models of free fire development, namely, integral, zone, and field. The results of the obtained data are justified and used as a basis for developing a method to determine the estimated values of dangerous fire factors, which allows calculating the time of the evacuation of people from double-deck cars.

The authors explore the problem of ensuring fire safety and assessing the expected risk to life in double-deck trains. Statistical data of fires on railway transport in Russia are presented, their main causes are revealed. A method for assessing expected risk to life in double-deck trains is proposed. The results of the assessment can be used in the future to justify the adoption of additional measures aimed at reducing the level of fire hazard for people in double-decker trains.