Increasing the wind energy penetration in a power system presents some technical challenges to the transmission expansion planning (TEP). In the first stage of TEP, the transmission bottlenecks should be determined and ranked via security assessment. The high penetration of wind energy means a large number of wind farms exist in various geographic areas. It is found that there is a correlation between the wind speed series of different farms. Therefore, integration of the correlated wind farms into security assessment is addressed in this study. Hence, a new model of wind speed prediction is presented based on the correlated autoregressive moving average time series. The copula functions are used to make the predefined correlation among wind speed series. Here a linear correlation using a Gaussian copula is implemented. Then, the risk-based security assessment is performed using the proposed sequential time simulation. The proposed process is applied to the modified IEEE 39-bus test system which comprises 15 wind farms. Then, the transmission bottlenecks are identified and ranked regarding their overload risks. Finally, the impacts of the wind farms correlation on the risk index are investigated and those contingencies which impose the highest influence on this risk are identified.

SUMMARY Higher penetration of distributed generation in distribution systems makes the islanding operation more realistic. In this paper, an adequacy assessment is presented in the presence of wind energy sources in distribution system for an islanded area. Wind speed simulation is performed using auto‐regressive moving average time series. For adequacy assessment, well‐being indices are introduced and calculated for an islanded area through an islanding algorithm. Then, sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the dependency of well‐being indices on key parameters of analysis. Finally, the results are presented and discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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