Batteries have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from on-road transportation. However, environmental and social impacts of producing lithium-ion batteries, particularly cathode materials, and concerns over material criticality are frequently highlighted as barriers to widespread electric vehicle adoption. Circular economy strategies, like reuse and recycling, can reduce impacts and secure regional supplies. To understand the potential for circularity, we undertake a dynamic global material flow analysis of pack-level materials that includes scenario analysis for changing battery cathode chemistries and electric vehicle demand. Results are produced regionwise and through the year 2040 to estimate the potential global and regional circularity of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, iron, aluminum, copper, and graphite, although the analysis is focused on the cathode materials. Under idealized conditions, retired batteries could supply 60% of cobalt, 53% of lithium, 57% of manganese, and 53% of nickel globally in 2040. If the current mix of cathode chemistries evolves to a market dominated by NMC 811, a low cobalt chemistry, there is potential for 85% global circularity of cobalt in 2040. If the market steers away from cathodes containing cobalt, to an LFP-dominated market, cobalt, manganese, and nickel become less relevant and reach circularity before 2040. For each market to benefit from the recovery of secondary materials, recycling and manufacturing infrastructure must be developed in each region.

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The market dynamics, and their impact on a future circular economy for lithium-ion batteries (LIB), are presented in this roadmap, with safety as an integral consideration throughout the life cycle. At the point of end-of-life, there is a range of potential options – remanufacturing, reuse and recycling. Diagnostics play a significant role in evaluating the state of health and condition of batteries, and improvements to diagnostic techniques are evaluated. At present, manual disassembly dominates end-of-life disposal, however, given the volumes of future batteries that are to be anticipated, automated approaches to the dismantling of end-of-life battery packs will be key. The first stage in recycling after the removal of the cells is the initial cell-breaking or opening step. Approaches to this are reviewed, contrasting shredding and cell disassembly as two alternative approaches. Design for recycling is one approach that could assist in easier disassembly of cells, and new approaches to cell design that could enable the circular economy of LIBs are reviewed. After disassembly, subsequent separation of the black mass is performed before further concentration of components. There are a plethora of alternative approaches for recovering materials; this roadmap sets out the future directions for a range of approaches including pyrometallurgy, hydrometallurgy, short-loop, direct, and the biological recovery of LIB materials. Furthermore, anode, lithium, electrolyte, binder and plastics recovery are considered in the range of approaches in order to maximise the proportion of materials recovered, minimise waste and point the way towards zero-waste recycling. The life-cycle implications of a circular economy are discussed considering the overall system of LIB recycling, and also directly investigating the different recycling methods. The legal and regulatory perspectives are also considered. Finally, with a view to the future, approaches for next-generation battery chemistries and recycling are evaluated, identifying gaps for research.

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