This paper constructs a minimum-variance portfolio of six agricultural futures. We make a full sample analysis as well as a pre-COVID and COVID examination. Using Markowitz portfolio optimisation, we find that soybean futures have the highest share (31%) in the full sample portfolio because it has the lowest variance. Both soybean oil and rice futures have the second highest weight in the full sample portfolio, in an amount of 24%, because soybean oil has the second lowest variance, whereas rice has, by far, the lowest average correlation with other agricultural futures. Soybean oil has the highest share of 35% in the pre-COVID period, whereas rice follows with 27%. On the other hand, in the COVID period, soybean has a very high share in an amount of 47% due to the lowest risk, while rice takes second place with 19%. Based on the results, investors should invest the most in soybean oil and rice in tranquil periods, while the choice should be soybean and rice in crisis periods. Rice is the choice in both sub-periods because rice has a very low correlation with other agricultural commodities, which happens due to the price stabilisation of rice that is often conducted by Asian countries.
The paper explores the impact of leasing in agriculture on agricultural production in the Republic of Serbia by means of correlation and regression analysis. The research was conducted in the period between 2006 and 2016. The authorized data from National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia were used in the paper. With the aim of carrying out a more comprehensive research, the paper analyzes the impact of leasing placement on the following economic accounts for agriculture: Output of agricultural industry, Intermediate consumption, Gross value added, Agricultural goods output, and Factor income.
Agricultural production is supported by the food industry allowing the placement of agricultural products with a higher processing phase achieve higher value of surplus of balance payments in this activity. The work structure can be analyzed in two parts. The first part considers the key specifics and problems of financing agriculture and food industry of Serbia (low contribution of agriculture in the creation of gross domestic product - GDP, small allocations for the agrarian budget, unfavorable agrarian loans with commercial banks, etc.). The second part of the article presents the structure of exports of agriculture and food industry of Serbia from 2011 to 2016. In the six-year period, cereals and cereal-based products, as well as fruits and vegetables, dominate the country's total exports. The average share of cereal exports in total exports of the country was around 5.5%, and fruit and vegetables about 5.2%.
The Covid-19 virus pandemic, declared in 2020 by the World Health Organization, has a very large impact on banking business around the world. The most significant problem is the growth of credit risk and the huge growth of demand for liquid assets. The crisis has also increased the risks associated with the digitalization of banking business and brought new risks posed by the work of employees from home. The timely reaction of regulatory authorities, at the global level, and the willingness of the monetary and fiscal authorities of all countries to cooperate have shown a very positive effect on the stability of the banking system.
Sažetak: Autori u radu proučavaju uticaj pandemije COVID-19 na međunarodne robne tokove. Po prvi put se u XXI veku susrećemo sa pandemijom virusa koja teži da fundamentalno izmeni način na koji živimo i način na koji poslujemo. Brzo širenje virusa SARS-CoV-2 dovelo je svetske zdravstvene i globalne ekonomske krize, kao i do poremećaja u lancima snabdevanja u međunarodnoj trgovini. Ekonomska kriza će se produbiti tokom daljeg trajanja pandemije, a neće prestati ni sa zvaničnim proglašenjem njenog kraja. Autori u radu daju prikaz kako svetska ekonomska kriza, uzrokovana svetskom zdravstvenom krizom, utiče na lance snabdevanja robom u međunarodnim robnim tokovima. Takođe, biće prikazano koji su to problemi sa kojima se suočavaju svi koji čine karike lanaca snabdevanja i kako je do tih problema došlo. U radu su korišćeni ovlašćeni podaci iz oblasti međunarodne ekonomije na globalnom nivou u vremenskoj seriji od 2020. godine do 2021. godine.
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