Social dialogue is underdeveloped in the Baltic countries. This is often attributed to weak labour institutions and low mobilization, but I argue that employers’ motivation to engage in multi-employer bargaining is a crucial precondition for social dialogue. I build on scholarship in comparative political economy that links the long-run stability of collective bargaining to export competitiveness, and investigate why enterprises in the Baltic countries do not use multi-employer bargaining as an institutional instrument for wage coordination, even though economic growth is export-led. Until recently, employers lacked interest in coordinated wage-setting because of macroeconomic conditions: in particular favourable price trends in international markets which resulted in significantly higher value added without additional investments in efficiency, reducing structural pressure to align wages with productivity. Therefore, the strategies currently employed by Baltic enterprises are not complementary with social dialogue institutions.

The paper contributes to further advancing research on the middle-income trap in the Baltic States. It argues, first, that while the Baltic States have already surpassed income levels associated with the middle-income trap and continue converging with advanced economies, they still might face risks of the middle-income trap defined as a difficulty to move into higher value-added positions of the value chain. Second, the paper demonstrates that over the course of recent transformations, growth models of the Baltic States have become increasingly divergent with differences between Estonia and Lithuania being most pronounced. Third, it is argued, that growth model differences also imply different risks associated with the middle-income trap. Estonia faces a risk that its leapfrogging into specialisation of ICT-based services remains premature and incapable to deliver productivity levels comparable to those of advanced economies. Yet, Lithuania faces a risk of being incapable to upgrade its large manufacturing sector. Instead, it risks continuously sustaining labour-intensive export-led growth and further taking advantage of cost-competitiveness by diversifying into new industries while still performing lower value-added activities in them.

Santrauka. Straipsnyje darbo santykiai konceptualizuojami naujojo institucionalizmo požiūriu kaip formalios ir neformalios institucinės taisyklės ir praktikos, taip pat analizuojamos šios ĮvadasDarbo santykių kaitos diskusijos lietuvoje telkiasi į teisinio reglamentavimo, kurį reprezentuoja lietuvos respublikos darbo kodeksas (toliau -DK), keitimą, o tokių diskusijų objektas dažnai yra DK nuostatų liberalizavimas. Šių diskusijų ir jas lydinčių veiksmų intensyvumą liudija lietuvos respublikos Seime įregistruotų DK straipsnių papildymo, pakeitimo ar pripažinimo netekusiais galios įstatymų projektų skaičius. 2010-2013 m. tokių įstatymų

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