We used a combination of radioiodine scanning and quantitative radiation dosimetry to evaluate responses to therapeutic irradiation with 131I in 76 patients with thyroid adenocarcinoma. Fifty patients received 131I treatment for ablation of residual thyroid tissue after surgical thyroidectomy, and 26 had 131I treatment for metastatic thyroid cancer. Successful ablation was observed in patients receiving higher radiation doses to the thyroid--about 4.4 times those in patients whose lesions were not ablated--largely because of a longer effective half-life of 131I in residual thyroid tissue in the patients with ablated lesions. Patients with metastases that persisted after 131I therapy tended to have more advanced disease and received significantly lower radiation doses per millicurie of administered 131I than did persons whose lesions responded to treatment. Initial 131I treatment resulting in radiation doses of at least 30,000 rad to thyroid remnants and 8000 rad to metastases was associated with a significant increase in the rate of response to therapy.

The ideal therapy for differentiated thyroid cancer is uncertain. Although thyroid hormone treatment is pivotal, the degree of thyrotropin (TSH) suppression that is required to prevent recurrences has not been studied in detail. We have examined the relation of TSH suppression to baseline disease characteristics and to the likelihood of disease progression in a cohort of thyroid cancer patients who have been followed in a multicenter thyroid cancer registry that was established in 1986. The present study describes 617 patients with papillary and 66 patients with follicular thyroid cancer followed annually for a median of 4.5 years (range 1-8.6 years). Cancer staging was assessed using a staging scheme developed and validated by the registry. Cancer status was defined as no residual disease; progressive disease at any follow-up time; or death from thyroid cancer. A mean TSH score was calculated for each patient by averaging all available TSH determinations, where 1 = undetectable TSH; 2 = subnormal TSH; 3 = normal TSH; and 4 = elevated TSH. Patients were also grouped by their TSH scores: group 1: mean TSH score 1.0-1.99; group 2: mean TSH score 2.0-2.99; group 3: mean TSH score 3.0-4.0. The degree of TSH suppression did not differ between papillary and follicular thyroid cancer patients. However, TSH suppression was greater in papillary cancer patients who were initially classified as being at higher risk for recurrence. This was not the case for follicular cancer patients, where TSH suppression was similar for all patients. For all stages of papillary cancer, a Cox proportional hazards model showed that disease stage, patient age, and radioiodine therapy all predicted disease progression, but TSH score category did not. However, TSH score category was an independent predictor of disease progression in high risk patients (p = 0.03), but was no longer significant when radioiodine therapy was included in the model (p = 0.09). There were too few patients with follicular cancer for multivariate analysis. These data suggest that physicians use greater degrees of TSH suppression in higher risk papillary cancer patients. Our data do not support the concept that greater degrees of TSH suppression are required to prevent disease progression in low-risk patients, but this possibility remains in high-risk patients. Additional studies with more patients and longer follow-up may provide the answer to this important question.

OBJECTIVES No prospectively derived or validated decision tools identify emergency department (ED) patients with acute heart failure (AHF) at low risk for 30-day adverse events who are thus potential candidates for safe ED discharge. This study sought to accomplish that goal. BACKGROUND The nearly 1 million annual ED visits for AHF are associated with high proportions of admissions and consume significant resources. METHODS We prospectively enrolled 1,033 patients diagnosed with AHF in the ED from 4 hospitals between July 20, 2007, and February 4, 2011. We used an ordinal outcome hierarchy, defined as the incidence of the most severe adverse event within 30 days of ED evaluation (acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularization, emergent dialysis, intubation, mechanical cardiac support, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and death). RESULTS Of 1,033 patients enrolled, 126 (12%) experienced at least one 30-day adverse event. The decision tool had a C statistic of 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.63 to 0.74). Elevated troponin (p < 0.001) and renal function (p = 0.01) were significant predictors of adverse events in our multivariable model, whereas B-type natriuretic peptide (p = 0.09), tachypnea (p = 0.09), and patients undergoing dialysis (p = 0.07) trended toward significance. At risk thresholds of 1%, 3%, and 5%, we found0%, 1.4%, and 13.0%patients were at low risk, with negative predictive values of 100%, 96%, and 93%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The STRATIFY decision tool identifies ED patients with AHF who are at low risk for 30-day adverse events and may be candidates for safe ED discharge. After external testing, and perhaps when used as part of a shared decision-making strategy, it may significantly affect disposition strategies. (Improving Heart Failure Risk Stratification in the ED [STRATIFY]; NCT00508638)

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BACKGROUND A novel prognostic staging classification encompassing all forms of thyroid carcinoma was created for the National Thyroid Cancer Treatment Cooperative Study (NTCTCS) Registry, with the goal of prospective validation and comparison with other available staging classifications. METHODS Patient information was recorded prospectively from 14 institutions. Clinicopathologic staging was based on patient age at diagnosis, tumor histology, tumor size, intrathyroidal multifocality, extraglandular invasion, metastases, and tumor differentiation. RESULTS Between 1987 and 1995, 1607 patients were registered. Approximately 43% of patients were classified as NTCTCS Stage I, 24% Stage II, 24% Stage III, and 9% Stage IV. Patients with follicular carcinoma were more likely to have "high risk" Stage III or IV disease than those with papillary carcinoma. Of 1562 patients for whom censored follow‐up was available (median follow‐up, 40 months), 78 died of thyroid carcinoma or complications of its treatment. Five‐year product‐limit patient disease specific survival was 99.8% for Stage I, 100% for Stage II, 91.9% for Stage III, and 48.9% for Stage IV (P < 0.0001). The frequency of remaining disease free also declined significantly with increasing stage (94.3% for Stage I, 93.1% for Stage II, 77.8% for Stage III, and 24.6% for Stage IV). The same patients also were staged applying six previously published classifications as appropriate for their tumor type. The predictive value of the NTCTCS Registry staging classification consistently was among the highest for disease specific mortality and for remaining disease free, regardless of the tumor type. Conclusions The NTCTCS Registry staging classification provides a prospectively validated scheme for predicting short term prognosis for patients with thyroid carcinoma. [See editorial counterpoint on pages 844‐7 and reply to counterpoint on pages 848‐50, this issue.] Cancer 1998;83:1012‐1021. © 1998 American Cancer Society.