131Here our objectives are to: 1) assess the utility and challenges of translating qualitative scenarios into 132 spatial simulations using a cellular LCM; 2) evaluate the outcomes of the scenarios in terms of the 133 differences in the LULC configuration relative to the Recent Trends scenario and to each other; 3) 134compare the fate the landscape in terms of development and conservation within key Impact Areas (i.e., 135areas that have been identified as being important for conservation, wetland, flood, drinking water, 136farmland, and or wildlife management) ( Figure 2). (4) make the scenarios and simulations available to 137New England land use stakeholders. 138

Invasive forest insect and pathogens (FIP) are having significant, direct, adverse impacts. Interactions between FIPs and forest owners have the potential to create ecosystem impacts that compound direct impacts. We assessed family forest owners' responses to numerous contingent behavior, FIP-outbreak scenarios in the northeastern U.S. based on FIP outbreak attributes. Sixty-two percent of scenario responses (n=2,752) reflected a harvest intent as a result of FIPs; 84% of respondents (n=688) would consider harvesting in at least one of the four hypothetical scenarios presented to them. Harvest intention increased with greater FIP-related tree mortality and decreased with delayed total tree mortality. Owners with larger holdings, who had previously harvested forest products, and live on their forestland had greater intentions to harvest in response to FIPs. Results suggest that FIPs could transform the regional harvest regime with socio-ecological impacts that are distinct from those caused by FIPs or harvesting alone.made available for use under a CC0 license.

No abstract