Backgrounds
This study aims to estimate and compare the parameters of some univariate and bivariate count models to identify the factors affecting the number of mortality and the number of injured in road accidents.
Methods
The accident data used in this study are related to Kermanshah province in march2020 to march2021. Accidents areas were divided into 125 areas based on density characteristics. In a one-year period, 3090 accidents happened on the suburban roads of Kermanshah province, which resulted in 398 deaths and 4805 injuries. Accident information, including longitude and latitude of accident location, type of accident (fatal and injury), number of deaths, number of injuries, accident type, the reason of the accident, and the kind of accident were all included as population-level variables in the regression models. We investigated four frequently used bivariate count regression models for accident data in the literature.
Results
In bivariate analysis, except for the DNM model, there is a reasonable decrease in the AIC measures of the saturated model compared to the reduced model for the other three models. For the injury models, MSE is lowest, respectively for DIBP (137.87), BNB (289.46), BP (412.36) and DNM (3640.89) models. These results are also established for death models. But, in univariate analysis, only injury models almost present reasonable results.
Conclusions
Our findings show that the IDBP model is better suitable for evaluating accident datasets than other models. Motorcycle accidents, pedestrian accidents, left turn deviance, and dangerous speeding were all significant variables in the IDBP death model, and these parameters were linked to accident mortality.
Significant evidence of the lustre has been discovered during the excavation and restoration of the historical Arg-e Bam. 24 samples of these lustres are kept in the pottery bank and Exhibition of the Arg Bam. There are the following questions about them: what are the characteristic features of the lustrewares in the pottery bank and exhibition of the Arg-e Bam? Where is the production center of these lustrewares based on laboratory results? What local pottery traditions have existed in the production of lustreware in Kerman? After classification and typology of the lustrewares, 10 pieces have been chosen as the samples to perform elemental analysis of the body and glaze by the micro-PIXE method. The results of the elemental analysis of the paste and glaze indicated that these samples are of local origin and their raw materials are supplied from mines in Bam, Jiroft, or Kerman and produced in the same area. Therefore, the variety that can be seen in the color, pattern, and paste of these lustrewares is not due to their production in several centers in Iran, but due to production in different periods from the early to the late Islamic centuries in several local workshops in Kerman, Jiroft, or Bam.
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