2011 is the 25th anniversary of the American Evaluation Association. Such occasions are often recognized both by looking back to assess and celebrate accomplishments of the past and by looking ahead to anticipate the problems and potential of the future.It is surprisingly difficult to think in fresh ways about the future. Our first inclination is to assume that what is happening now will somehow continue, perhaps in a slightly altered form, into the future. This expectation reflects the comforting assumption that the past predicts the future, an assumption sorely tested unfortunately when one tries to predict stock prices, winning sports teams, or political events. While it is important to consider how current activities may be leading us into future conditions, such speculations are not only unreliable, they do little to stimulate radically alternative visions of the future.
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