Forecasts of the demand for medical supplies both directly and indirectly affect the operating costs and the quality of the care provided by health care institutions. Specifically, overestimating demand induces an inventory surplus, whereas underestimating demand possibly compromises patient safety. Uncertainty in forecasting the consumption of medical supplies generates intermittent demand events. The intermittent demand patterns for medical supplies are generally classified as lumpy, erratic, smooth, and slow-moving demand. This study was conducted with the purpose of advancing a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit's efforts to achieve a high level of accuracy in its forecasting of the demand for medical supplies. On this point, several demand forecasting methods were compared in terms of the forecast accuracy of each. The results confirm that applying Croston's method combined with a single exponential smoothing method yields the most accurate results for forecasting lumpy, erratic, and slow-moving demand, whereas the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method is the most suitable for forecasting smooth demand. In addition, when the classification of demand consumption patterns were combined with the demand forecasting models, the forecasting errors were minimized, indicating that this classification framework can play a role in improving patient safety and reducing inventory management costs in health care institutions.

This study evaluates the effect of a low-voltage electrical stimulation (ES) on the tenderness of yak longissimus muscle (LM). Samples from 16 yak bulls were divided into four treatment groups: normal chilling (NC), ES and chilling (ES & C) for 72 s (ES &C 72 s), ES & C for 90 s (ES & C 90 s), and ES & C for 108 s (ES & C 108 s). The temperature, the pH, the glycogen content, the Warner-Bratzler shear force (WBSF), the myofibril fragmentation index (MFI), and the muscle ultrastructure were determined during the course of postmortem aging. ES caused a rapid decrease in the pH to form a high-temperature and low-pH environment. The glycogen content gradually decreased with aging. The WBSF value of the ES & C groups was significantly lower than for the NC group (p < .05). The MFI values of ES & C groups after 24 hr postmortem aging were significantly higher than for the NC group. We concluded that ES improved yak meat tenderness during postmortem aging and that the different duration time by ES indicated different effects, and its affect was remarkable in the ES & C 90 s.

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