Effects of climate change on productivity of agricultural crops in relation to diseases that attack them are difficult to predict because they are complex and nonlinear. To investigate these crop-disease-climate interactions, UKCIP02 scenarios predicting UK temperature and rainfall under high-and low-CO 2 emission scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s were combined with a crop-simulation model predicting yield of fungicide-treated winter oilseed rape and with a weather-based regression model predicting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics. The combination of climate scenarios and crop model predicted that climate change will increase yield of fungicide-treated oilseed rape crops in Scotland by up to 0.5 t ha 21 (15%). In contrast, in southern England the combination of climate scenarios, crop, disease and yield loss models predicted that climate change will increase yield losses from phoma stem canker epidemics to up to 50 per cent (1.5 t ha 21) and greatly decrease yield of untreated winter oilseed rape. The size of losses is predicted to be greater for winter oilseed rape cultivars that are susceptible than for those that are resistant to the phoma stem canker pathogen Leptosphaeria maculans. Such predictions illustrate the unexpected, contrasting impacts of aspects of climate change on crop-disease interactions in agricultural systems in different regions.

Field experiments in Europe have shown that Chinese cultivars of winter oilseed rape ( Brassica napus ) are very susceptible to the pathogen Leptosphaeria maculans (cause of phoma stem canker). Climatic and agronomic conditions in China are suitable for L. maculans since the closely related but less damaging pathogen L. biglobosa occurs on the winter and spring oilseed rape crops there. Major gene resistance to L. maculans is not durable; when introduced into commercial oilseed rape cultivars it is rapidly rendered ineffective by changes in the pathogen population. The threat to Chinese oilseed rape production from L. maculans is illustrated by the way in which L. maculans has spread into other areas of the world where previously only L. biglobosa was present, such as Canada and Poland. Models were developed to describe the spread (in space and time) of L. maculans across Alberta province, Canada, based on survey data collected over a 15-year period. These models were used to estimate the potential spread of L. maculans across the Yangtze river oilseed rape growing areas of China and its associated costs. Short-term strategies to prevent occurrence of severe phoma stem canker epidemics in China include training of extension workers to recognise symptoms of the disease and use of PCR-based diagnostics to detect the pathogen on imported seed. Long-term strategies include the introduction of durable resistance to L. maculans into Chinese oilseed rape cultivars as a component of an integrated disease management programme. The costs of such strategies in relation to costs of a phoma stem canker epidemic are discussed.

Weather data generated for different parts of the UK under five climate change scenarios (baseline, 2020s low CO 2 emissions, 2020s high emissions, 2050s low emissions, 2050s high emissions) were inputted into weather-based models for predicting oilseed rape yields and yield losses from the two most important diseases, phoma stem canker and light leaf spot. An economic analysis of the predictions made by the models was done to provide a basis to guide government and industry planning for adaptation to effects of climate change on crops to ensure future food security. Modelling predicted that yields of fungicide-treated oilseed rape would increase by the 2020s and continue to increase by the 2050s, particularly in Scotland and northern England. If stem canker and light leaf spot were effectively controlled, the value of the crop was predicted to increase above the baseline 1980s value by £13 M in England and £28 M in Scotland by the 2050s under a high CO 2 emissions scenario. However, in contrast to predictions that phoma stem canker will increase in severity and range with climate change, modelling indicated that losses due to light leaf spot will decrease in both Scotland and England. Combined losses from both phoma stem canker and light leaf spot are predicted to increase, with yield losses of up to 40% in southern England and some regions of Scotland by the 2050s under the high emission scenarios. For this scenario, UK disease losses are predicted to increase by £50 M (by comparison with the baseline losses). However, the predicted increases in fungicidetreated (potential) yield and phoma stem canker/light leaf spot yield losses compensate for each other so that the net UK losses from climate change for untreated oilseed rape are small.

Various adaptation strategies are available that will minimize or negate predicted climate change-related increases in yield loss from phoma stem canker in UK winter oilseed rape (OSR) production. A number of forecasts for OSR yield, national production and subsequent economic values are presented, providing estimates of impacts on both yield and value for different levels of adaptation. Under future climate change scenarios, there will be increasing pressure to maintain yields at current levels. Losses can be minimized in the short term (up to the 2020s) with a 'low'-adaptation strategy, which essentially requires some farmer-led changes towards best management practices. However, the predicted impacts of climate change can be negated and, in most cases, improved upon, with 'high'adaptation strategies. This requires increased funding from both the public and private sectors and more directed efforts at adaptation from the producer. Most literature on adaptation to climate change has had a conceptual focus with little quantification of impacts. It is argued that quantifying the impacts of adaptation is essential to provide clearer information to guide policy and industry approaches to future climate change risk

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