Tropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they are adapted to relatively stable temperature regimes, such that even small increases in environmental temperature may lead to large decreases in physiological performance. One way in which tropical organisms may mitigate the detrimental effects of warming is through evolutionary change in thermal physiology. The speed and magnitude of this response depend, in part, on the strength of climate-driven selection. However, many ectotherms use behavioral adjustments to maintain preferred body temperatures in the face of environmental variation. These behaviors may shelter individuals from natural selection, preventing evolutionary adaptation to changing conditions. Here, we mimic the effects of climate change by experimentally transplanting a population of Anolis sagrei lizards to a novel thermal environment. Transplanted lizards experienced warmer and more thermally variable conditions, which resulted in strong directional selection on thermal performance traits. These same traits were not under selection in a reference population studied in a less thermally stressful environment. Our results indicate that climate change can exert strong natural selection on tropical ectotherms, despite their ability to thermoregulate behaviorally. To the extent that thermal performance traits are heritable, populations may be capable of rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. Bahamas | thermoregulationA nthropogenic climate change may be the single most dramatic physical change our planet has experienced during human history (1). In the tropics, where species are adapted to relatively stable climates, the impacts of climate change are predicted to be especially severe (2-5) (but see refs. 6, 7). Because many species maintain a body temperature (T b ) that is already close to their thermal limits, even small increases in environmental temperature (T e ) may produce large decreases in physiological performance that could push populations toward extinction (4).In tropical environments, evolutionary adaptation may be one of the most important mechanisms by which populations can avoid extinction (8). As climates shift, fitness for many species will become increasingly linked to variation in traits important for performance in a warmer and more thermally variable world (4). Numerous theoretical, laboratory, and field studies demonstrate a capacity for rapid evolution on time scales similar to those over which global warming is predicted to occur (9-11). Indeed, recent work on lizards (12) and butterflies (13) has revealed rapid shifts in thermal physiology that appear to be directly associated with changing thermal environments. Despite mounting evidence that the capacity for evolution may fundamentally alter extinction probabilities in the face of anthropogenic climate change, the potential for rapid evolution is usually not considered in models that attempt to predict the impact of climate change on biological populations (8).The rate at which ...

Much attention has been given to recent predictions that widespread extinctions of tropical ectotherms, and tropical forest lizards in particular, will result from anthropogenic climate change. Most of these predictions, however, are based on environmental temperature data measured at a maximum resolution of 1 km(2), whereas individuals of most species experience thermal variation on a much finer scale. To address this disconnect, we combined thermal performance curves for five populations of Anolis lizard from the Bay Islands of Honduras with high-resolution temperature distributions generated from physical models. Previous research has suggested that open-habitat species are likely to invade forest habitat and drive forest species to extinction. We test this hypothesis, and compare the vulnerabilities of closely related, but allopatric, forest species. Our data suggest that the open-habitat populations we studied will not invade forest habitat and may actually benefit from predicted warming for many decades. Conversely, one of the forest species we studied should experience reduced activity time as a result of warming, while two others are unlikely to experience a significant decline in performance. Our results suggest that global-scale predictions generated using low-resolution temperature data may overestimate the vulnerability of many tropical ectotherms to climate change.

Ectothermic species are particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and may adapt to changes in thermal environments through evolutionary shifts in thermal physiology or thermoregulatory behaviour. Nevertheless, the heritability of thermal traits, which sets a limit on evolutionary potential, remains largely unexplored. In this study, we captured brown anole lizards () from two populations that occur in contrasting thermal environments. We raised offspring from these populations in a laboratory common garden and compared the shape of their thermal performance curves to test for genetic divergence in thermal physiology. Thermal performance curves differed between populations in a common garden in ways partially consistent with divergent patterns of natural selection experienced by the source populations, implying that they had evolved in response to selection. Next, we estimated the heritability of thermal performance curves and of several traits related to thermoregulatory behaviour. We did not detect significant heritability in most components of the thermal performance curve or in several aspects of thermoregulatory behaviour, suggesting that contemporary selection is unlikely to result in rapid evolution. Our results indicate that the response to selection may be slow in the brown anole and that evolutionary change is unlikely to keep pace with current rates of environmental change.

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