The traditional way of life on small islands throughout the word is in danger. This paper, a case study of Ilovik, one particular small island in the Adriatic Sea, examines how negative demographic trends impact socio-economic and environmental processes and present special challenges to planning and implementing sustainable development. The primary research was conducted by collecting survey responses from the island's residents for two weeks in mid-June of 2011 on their current socioeconomic status, the natural environment, the residents' and vacation home owners' perception of tourism, the government's impact on socio-economic change, and the perception of the influence of the EU on future development. The results were analyzed and compared with the official data from government sources (censuses and live statistics). The analysis was performed with the central goal of examining the current sustainability of Ilovik and providing an understanding of its future fragile development perspectives which would depend on the population recovery and further increase of employment opportunities, always bearing in mind the delicate ecosystem and the unique cultural heritage of the small island.

This paper outlines the primary research conducted on the small island of Ilovik, Croatia and the following spatial statistical analysis performed with a central goal of examining current sustainability of the village and providing future planning recommendations. For two weeks in mid-June of 2011, residents were interviewed about their current socioeconomic status and perceptions of tourism, the natural environment, and government. Their responses were assigned numeric values with dummy variables excluding the least common response, and were entered as attributes of building footprint polygons digitized in a GIS to allow for spatial statistical analysis. Tests included Local and Global Getis Ord G, Ordinary Least Squares, and Geographically Weighted Regression. Clear hot and cold spots were found, showing where additional water sources are needed or where water quality should be addressed and that a coastal vs. inland divide exists. Weak correlations existed between income and all other attributes, but from the results one could suggest a focus on increasing tourism and decreasing the supply of houses for sale.Key words: spatial analysis of sustainability, small communities, small islands, Ilovik Prostorna analiza održivosti razvoja malih naselja: primjer naselja na otoku Iloviku u Hrvatskoj U radu se iznose preliminarni rezultati znanstvenog istraživanja na otoku Iloviku u Hrvatskoj. Primarni cilj prostorne statističke analize bio je ispitati postojeću održivost razvoja naselja na otoku i dati smjernice za daljnje planiranje razvoja. Tijekom dva tjedna u srpnju 2011. provedeni su intervjui sa stanovnicima otoka u vezi s njihovim socioekonomskim statusom te pogledom na turizam, okoliš i vlast. Njihovim odgovorima dodijeljene su numeričke vrijednosti s binarnim varijablama (0 i 1) koje su isključile odgovore s najmanje sličnosti s ostalima. Vrijednosti su unesene kao atributi koji su pridruženi objektima koji predstavljaju građevine digitalizirane u GIS-u kako bi se omogućila prostorna analiza. Test uključuje lokalni i globalni Getis Ord G, Ordinary Least Squares i regresiju prema geografskom položaju. Utvrđena su područja s koncentracijom visokih i niskih vrijednosti ( " vruće" i " hladne" točke) koja upućuju na dijelove gdje je potrebno povećanje količine dostupne vode i poboljšanje kvalitete vode te gdje postoji razlika između kopna i obale. Utvrđena je niska korelacija visine prihoda i ostalih varijabli, ali rezultati pokazuju da su naglašeni rast turizma i smanjenje broja praznih objekata.Ključne riječi: prostorna analiza održivosti, mala naselja, mali otoci, Ilovik Preliminary communicationPrethodno priopćenje 30Hrvatski geografski glasnik 75/2 (2013.)