Based on risk theory, considering the probability of an accident and the severity of the sequence, combining N-1 and N-2 security check, this paper puts forward a new risk index, which uses the amount of optimal load shedding as the severity of an accident consequence to identify the critical lines in power system. Taking IEEE24-RTS as an example, the simulation results verify the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed index.

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According to the characteristics of the correlation of multiple wind farm output, this paper put forwards a modeling method based on fuzzy c-means clustering and the copula function, and correlation wind farms are inserted into IEEE-RTS79 reliability system for risk assessment. By the probabilistic load flow calculated by Monte Carlo simulation method, the probability of the accident is derived, and bus voltage and branch power flow overload risk index are defined in this paper. The results show that this method can realize the modeling of the correlation of wind power output, and the risk index can identify the weakness of the system, which can provide reference for the operation and maintenance personnel.