No abstract

Stationary I(0) models employed in yield curve analysis typically imply an unrealistically low degree of volatility in long-run short-rate expectations due to fast mean reversion. In this paper we propose a novel multivariate affine term structure model with a two-fold source of persistence in the yield curve: Long-memory and short-memory. Our model, based on an I(d) specification, nests the I(0) and I(1) models as special cases and the I(0) model is decisively rejected by the data. Our model estimates imply both mean reversion in yields and quite volatile long-distance short-rate expectations, due to the higher persistence imparted by the long-memory component. Our implied term premium estimates differ from those of the I(0) model during some relevant periods by more than 4 percentage points and exhibit a realistic countercyclical pattern. Mirko Abbritti AbstractStationary I(0) models employed in yield curve analysis typically imply an unrealistically low degree of volatility in long-run short-rate expectations due to fast mean reversion. In this paper we propose a novel multivariate affine term structure model with a two-fold source of persistence in the yield curve: Long-memory and short-memory. Our model, based on an I(d) specification, nests the I(0) and I(1) models as special cases and the I(0) model is decisively rejected by the data. Our model estimates imply both mean reversion in yields and quite volatile long-distance short-rate expectations, due to the higher persistence imparted by the long-memory component. Our implied term premium estimates differ from those of the I(0) model during some relevant periods by more than 4 percentage points and exhibit a realistic countercyclical pattern.JEL Classification: C3, E4, G1

This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis. Mirko AbbrittiUniversity of Navarra AbstractThis paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.JEL Classification Numbers: C32, E43, F41, G12

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. www.econstor.eu The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E SIZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. In our analysis, we focus on the differentials in inflation and unemployment between countries, as they directly reflect how the currency union responds to shocks. We highlight the following three results: First, we show that it is important to distinguish between different labor market rigidities as they have opposite effects on inflation and unemployment differentials. Second, we find that asymmetries in labor market structures tend to increase the volatility of both inflation and unemployment differentials. Finally, we show that it is important to take into account the interaction between different types of labor market rigidities. Overall, our results suggest that asymmetries in labor market structures worsen the adjustment of a currency union to shocks.JEL Classification: E32, E52, F41

No abstract