Knowledge of the stratigraphic architecture and geotechnical properties of surficial soil sediments is essential for geotechnical risk assessment. In the Saguenay study area, the Quaternary deposits consist of a basal till layer and heterogeneous post-glacial deposits. Considering the stratigraphic setting and soil type heterogeneity, a multistep stochastic methodology is developed for 3D geological modelling and quantification of the associated uncertainties. This methodology is adopted for regional studies and involves geostatistical interpolation and simulation methods. Empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) is applied to generate the bedrock topography map and determine the thickness of the till sediments and their uncertainties. The locally varying mean and variance of the EBK method enable accounting for data complexity and moderate nonstationarity. Sequential indicator simulation is then performed to determine the occurrence probability of the discontinuous post-glacial sediments (clay, sand and gravel) on top of the basal till layer. The individual thickness maps of the discontinuous soil layers and uncertainties are generated in a probabilistic manner. The proposed stochastic framework is suitable for heterogeneous soil deposits characterised with complex surface and subsurface datasets.

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A seismic microzonation study was conducted to refine the seismic hazard model for the city of Saguenay, Canada. The Quaternary geology underlying Saguenay shows complex glacial and post-glacial stratigraphy with a number of buried valleys filled with fluvioglacial and glaciomarine sediments. High impedance contrast between rock formations and surficial sediments is prone to seismic amplification. To evaluate their applicability, advantages and limitations in capturing the geological specificity of the study area, four site classification methods were applied: the current National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) and Eurocode 8, both mainly based on the average shear-wave velocity for the surficial sediments (VS,avg) and for the top 30 m (VS,30); a method based on the fundamental site period (T0); and a hybrid method based on the combination of VS,30, T0 and VS,avg. The study specifically aimed to evaluate the importance of the site classification parameters on the resulting microzonation maps. VS,30 is capable to present the geological and geotechnical site conditions, however, the results may be further improved by considering Vs,avg in shallow and T0 in thick layers of soil sediments as secondary parameters. The T0 method gives also satisfactory results with T0 showing a better correlation to Vs,30 than to Vs,avg. The versatile hybrid method may be challenging to apply in certain cases with its nine different site categories and parameters.

A novel probabilistic methodology for regional seismic site characterization is proposed and applied to a region with highly heterogeneous surficial geology and varying soil sediment thickness and stiffness. The method combines various sources of geological and geotechnical uncertainties to develop a three-dimensional (3D) shear-wave velocity ( Vs) model and evaluate the associated uncertainties. A 3D geological model of the unconsolidated deposits was developed using geostatistical interpolation and simulation methods. Sequential indicator simulations produced a quantitative geologic model that explicitly quantified geological uncertainties based on the likelihood of specific soil types occurring. In situ measurements and multivariate statistical analysis allowed the development of empirical correlations between Vs, geotechnical parameters, depth, and soil types. The resulting 3D Vs values were estimated on the basis of Vs-depth correlations and the probability of occurrence of each soil type. In this approach, the propagated uncertainty was also quantified by considering the combined variance. Seismic microzonation mapping was then conducted by transforming the 3D Vs model into two-dimensional (2D) maps that represent the spatial distributions of the time-averaged shear-wave velocity of the top 30 m ( Vs,30) and the fundamental site period ( T0), along with their respective uncertainties using Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that microzonation maps and their uncertainties are influenced by the thickness, occurrence probability, and geotechnical properties of soils. The proposed method can be used to assess the probabilistic seismic risk at local and regional scales in areas with geologically and geotechnically complex soil properties.