The objective of this paper is to present an integrated approach to quantify subsurface uncertainties and to share the assessments that have been applied in the subsurface studies of a new offshore oil field development in United Arab Emirates. A methodology was developed to review and rank the various subsurface uncertainties. Seismic and geological tools were used to assess uncertainties of static parameters, while integration of all uncertainties was made in the dynamic simulation model. New approaches were implemented to address two important parameters: Critical Water Saturation and Permeability. Critical Water Saturation uncertainty was derived by history matching production test data using a Saturation-Versus-Height model coupled with a Fractional Flow equation. For estimating uncertainty on Permeability, correlations with core derived fracture densities were developed. Uncertainty on the Critical Water Saturation was found to have the highest impact on oil recovery. This uncertainty is related to an observation already made for other carbonate reservoirs where perforated intervals are sometimes producing at very low water-cut in spite of high water saturations interpreted from the logs. This uncertainty review allowed updating the Dynamic Model with more robust P50 estimates of its parameters. The updated model was used to define a new base case development well scheme and production profile. The study was important in maturing the development studies further. It was used in particular not only for updating the Dynamic Model, but also for defining future studies, preparing a data acquisition plan, and identifying mitigation actions to reduce the subsurface risks.
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