Introducción. La enfermedad de Chagas es causada por Trypanosoma cruzi y transmitida por insectos del género Triatoma. La distribución de Triatoma está explicada por factores ambientales, biológicos y sociales. La hipótesis que plantea esta investigación, es que la interacción de variables ambientales y sociales que reflejan las condiciones de rezago de la población humana, explican de manera más precisa el patrón de distribución de este vector y en consecuencia el riesgo epidemiológico de la enfermedad. Objetivos. Con la finalidad de comprobar el efecto y contribución de variables socio-ambientales en la distribución e identificación de zonas de mayor riesgo potencial de Triatoma en el estado de Guanajuato, se evaluaron dos métodos que analizan los patrones de distribución, uno a escala global y otro a nivel local. Material y métodos. Los métodos utilizados son el Modelo de Máxima Entropía (MaxEnt) y la Regresión Geográficamente Ponderada (GWR), como variables socio-ambientales se consideraron: índice de desarrollo humano, índice de rezago social, población con una carencia social, uso de suelo y vegetación, elevación, pendiente, evaporación y temperatura. Como ocurrencias se utilizaron datos publicados por López-Cárdenas et al. 2005. Resultados. Se observó con los dos métodos, que las variables socioeconómicas explican en más de 50 % la predicción de la distribución de Triatoma. Y que el índice de rezago social es la variable que más contribuye a la explicación de esta distribución, con un porcentaje de estimación de 34.3 % y 39.08 % para MaxEnt y GWR respectivamente. A partir de dichos modelos se identificó que las áreas de mayor riesgo potencial se concentran al noreste del estado, con un mayor nivel de riesgo el municipio de Victoria. Conclusiones. Con base en estos resultados se comprueba que las variables sociales tienen un fuerte poder explicativo en la predicción de la distribución y riesgo potencial de Triatoma en Guanajuato. De manera que la elección de las variables que contextualicen con mayor profundidad la historia natural de Triatoma y el entorno social del huésped, puede resultar más crítico que el propio modelo. Effect of Socio-Environmental variables in the distribution and potential risk Of Triatoma (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)In The State Of Guanajuato, Mexico Abstract Introduction. Chagas disease is caused by Trypanosoma cruzi and transmitted by insects of the Triatoma genus. The distribution of Triatoma is explained by environmental, biological and social factors. The hypothesis that this research raises is this: the interaction of environmental and social variables that reflect the lag conditions of the human population explain more precisely the pattern of distribution of this vector and, consequently, the epidemiological risk of the disease. Objectives. So as to verify the effect and contribution of socio-environmental variables in the distribution and identification of areas of greatest potential risk of Triatoma in the state of Guanajuato, two methods that analyze the distribution patterns were evaluated: one on a global scale and another locally. Materials and methods. The methods used are the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), as socio-environmental variables the following were considered: human development index, social lag index, population with a social deficiency, land use and vegetation, elevation and slope, evaporation and temperature. As occurrences, data published by López-Cárdenas et al. 2005 was used. Results. It was observed with the two methods, that the socioeconomic variables explain in more than 50% the prediction of the distribution of Triatoma; and that the social lag index is the variable that most contributes to the explanation of this distribution, with an estimated percentage of 34.3% and 39.08% for MaxEnt and GWR respectively. From these models it was identified that the areas of greatest potential risk are concentrated in the northeast side of the state, with a higher level of risk in Victoria County. Conclusions. Based on these results, it is verified that the social variables have a strong explanatory power in the prediction of the distribution and potential risk of the Triatoma disease in Guanajuato. Thus, the choice of variables that contextualize Triatoma's natural history and the host's social environment in greater depth may be more critical than the model itself.
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