The net reclassification improvement (NRI) is an increasingly popular measure for evaluating improvements in risk predictions. This article details a review of 67 publications in high-impact general clinical journals that considered the NRI. Incomplete reporting of NRI methods, incorrect calculation, and common misinterpretations were found. To aid improved applications of the NRI, the article elaborates on several aspects of the computation and interpretation in various settings. Limitations and controversies are discussed, including the effect of miscalibration of prediction models, the use of the continuous NRI and “clinical NRI,” and the relation with decision analytic measures. A systematic approach toward presenting NRI analysis is proposed: Detail and motivate the methods used for computation of the NRI, use clinically meaningful risk cutoffs for the category-based NRI, report both NRI components, address issues of calibration, and do not interpret the overall NRI as a percentage of the study population reclassified. Promising NRI findings need to be followed with decision analytic or formal cost-effectiveness evaluations.

Background Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has limited accuracy for the early detection of prostate cancer (PCa). Objective To assess the value added by percentage of free to total PSA (%fPSA), prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3), and a kallikrein panel (4k-panel) to the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) multivariable prediction models: risk calculator (RC) 4, including transrectal ultrasound, and RC 4 plus digital rectal examination (4+DRE) for prescreened men. Design, setting, and participants Participants were invited for rescreening between October 2007 and February 2009 within the Dutch part of the ERSPC study. Biopsies were taken in men with a PSA level ≥3.0 ng/ml or a PCA3 score ≥10. Additional analyses of the 4k-panel were done on serum samples. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Outcome was defined as PCa detectable by sextant biopsy. Receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analyses were performed to compare the predictive capabilities of %fPSA, PCA3, 4k-panel, the ERSPC RCs, and their combinations in logistic regression models. Results and limitations PCa was detected in 119 of 708 men. The %fPSA did not perform better univariately or added to the RCs compared with the RCs alone. In 202 men with an elevated PSA, the 4k-panel discriminated better than PCA3 when modelled univariately (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.78 vs 0.62; p = 0.01). The multivariable models with PCA3 or the 4k-panel were equivalent (AUC: 0.80 for RC 4+DRE). In the total population, PCA3 discriminated better than the 4k-panel (univariate AUC: 0.63 vs 0.56; p = 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the multivariable model with PCA3 (AUC: 0.73) versus the model with the 4k-panel (AUC: 0.71; p = 0.18). The multivariable model with PCA3 performed better than the reference model (0.73 vs 0.70; p = 0.02). Decision curves confirmed these patterns, although numbers were small. Conclusions Both PCA3 and, to a lesser extent, a 4k-panel have added value to the DRE-based ERSPC RC in detecting PCa in prescreened men. Patient summary We studied the added value of novel biomarkers to previously developed risk prediction models for prostate cancer. We found that inclusion of these biomarkers resulted in an increase in predictive ability.

ObjectiveWe aimed to determine the validity of two risk scores for patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer in different European settings, in patients with primary tumours.MethodsWe included 1,892 patients with primary stage Ta or T1 non-muscle invasive bladder cancer who underwent a transurethral resection in Spain (n = 973), the Netherlands (n = 639), or Denmark (n = 280). We evaluated recurrence-free survival and progression-free survival according to the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment (CUETO) risk scores for each patient and used the concordance index (c-index) to indicate discriminative ability.ResultsThe 3 cohorts were comparable according to age and sex, but patients from Denmark had a larger proportion of patients with the high stage and grade at diagnosis (p<0.01). At least one recurrence occurred in 839 (44%) patients and 258 (14%) patients had a progression during a median follow-up of 74 months. Patients from Denmark had the highest 10-year recurrence and progression rates (75% and 24%, respectively), whereas patients from Spain had the lowest rates (34% and 10%, respectively). The EORTC and CUETO risk scores both predicted progression better than recurrence with c-indices ranging from 0.72 to 0.82 while for recurrence, those ranged from 0.55 to 0.61.ConclusionThe EORTC and CUETO risk scores can reasonably predict progression, while prediction of recurrence is more difficult. New prognostic markers are needed to better predict recurrence of tumours in primary non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients.

BackgroundLittle is known about the relation of different dietary protein types with blood pressure (BP). We examined whether intake of total, plant, animal, dairy, meat, and grain protein was related to BP in a cross sectional cohort of 20,820 Dutch adults, aged 20–65 y and not using antihypertensive medication.DesignMean BP levels were calculated in quintiles of energy-adjusted protein with adjustment for age, sex, BMI, education, smoking, and intake of energy, alcohol, and other nutrients including protein from other sources. In addition, mean BP difference after substitution of 3 en% carbohydrates or MUFA with protein was calculated.ResultsTotal protein and animal protein were not associated with BP (ptrend = 0.62 and 0.71 respectively), both at the expense of carbohydrates and MUFA. Systolic BP was 1.8 mmHg lower (ptrend<0.01) in the highest (>36 g/d) than in the lowest (<27 g/d) quintile of plant protein. This inverse association was present both at the expense of carbohydrates and MUFA and more pronounced in individuals with untreated hypertension (−3.6 mmHg) than in those with normal (+0.1 mmHg) or prehypertensive BP (−0.3 mmHg; pinteraction<0.01). Meat and grain protein were not related to BP. Dairy protein was directly associated with systolic BP (+1.6 mmHg, ptrend<0.01), but not with diastolic BP (ptrend = 0.24).ConclusionsTotal protein and animal protein were not associated with BP in this general untreated Dutch population. Plant protein may be beneficial to BP, especially in people with elevated BP. However, because high intake of plant protein may be a marker of a healthy diet and lifestyle in general, confirmation from randomized controlled trials is warranted.