JT03359753Complete document available on OLIS in its original format This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. ECO/WKP(2014) Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works.Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to OECD Economics Department, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France, or by e-mail to eco.contact@oecd.org This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
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ABSTRACT/RÉSUMÉ
An update of the OECD international trade equationsThis paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse and project international trade developments. The set of countries covered by the estimations has been significantly enlarged, with estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and trade prices presented for 41 countries, including countries that have recently joined the OECD (Chile, Estonia, Israel and Slovenia) and major emerging countries (Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). Reflecting the heterogeneity of countries included in the estimations, procedures for grouping them have been modified to allow for country specifics as much as possible. Structural breaks over the estimation period -which now typically covers the mid-1980s to 2012 and includes the global trade collapse of 2009 -are dealt with by the flexible modelling of deterministic trends, including the allowance for several rather than single trend reversals.
JEL classification codes: F14; F17
