We perfected the known two-stage method of forecasting energy consumption levels by applying its methodical approaches for three hierarchical levels of the structure of Ukrainian economy: country, regions, types of economic activity in regions. This approach makes it possible to determine the demand for fuel and energy resources at the regional levels of structuring the economy with regard for the specific features of their economic development. According to regional energy efficiency programs, it is possible to estimate more accurately the energy saving potentials and volumes of the replacement of scarce fuels with their cheap local types. The three-stage method is based on the refined normative method that is used at three hierarchical levels with regard for the estimated energy saving potentials from structural and technological shifts in the economy. The forecasts obtained agree with each other by Kulyk's method twice. The country-level forecast is consistent with the forecast for total regional energy consumption. For each region, the forecast of regional energy consumption is consistent with the forecast of total energy consumption at the levels of types of economic activity in the region with regard for structural and technological shifts. If the coordination of consumption levels between the types of economic activity and the region will introduce corrections to the regional energy consumption, then the coordination of levels of the country and regions is carried out at the second time. In other words, forecasting is carried out at three levels with two matches of the results of forecasting energy consumption –- between the first and second as well as second and third levels. If it is necessary to correct the forecasts of second level, reconciliation between the forecasts of first and second levels is performed again. Kulyk's vector method is used to agree on predictive decisions. We also present a method for calculating the forecasts of energy consumption at three hierarchical levels with the corresponding agreement of these forecasts. Based on the described methodology and estimated volumes of energy saving potentials at regional levels and for more significant types of economic activity in the regions, we performed a forecast of heat energy consumption for the period to 2040 , taking into account the volumes of technological energy saving in the regions. Keywords: method, demand, region, energy consumption, forecasting, type of economic activity, adjustment

The article presents a projection of Ukraine economy development up to 2040 according to the baseline scenario, taking into account the changes that have occurred during 2017-2020. Using the projection, a preliminary estimate of the forecasted demand for electricity at the national level (TOP-DOWN method) for 2040 was developed, which taking into account a new national thermal power production structure including structure of coal-fired power plants according to the NPC “Ukrenergo” 2020 Adequacy Report. Based on these data, the forecast for fuel demand in the country including coal for 2040 is developed, which takes into account consolidated economic activities, changes in household sector, the potential of energy savings from structural changes and technological changes. Also, the forecast of fuel and coal use for transformation in industrial technological processes and in power plants are calculated. The study shows that fuel consumption in the country is significantly influenced by two factors: the structure of the economy and the structure of generating capacity for electricity and heat. Reducing the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation leads to almost constant consumption. The structural potential for energy savings is almost 50% of the total. Keywords: forecast, demand, fuel, coal, structure of economy, technological potential of energy saving, method

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