Frequent slow slip events and rapid postseismic slip reveal persistent aseismic fault areas delineating future seismic ruptures.

No abstract

[1] The main objective is to determine the three stages of the life of a thrust in an accretionary wedge which are the onset of thrusting along its ramp, the development with the construction of the relief, and the arrest because of the onset of another thrusting event. A simple kinematics is proposed for the geometry of the developing thrust fold based on rigid regions separated by velocity discontinuities along which work is dissipated according to the Coulomb criterion. The evolution of the thrust fold satisfies mechanical equilibrium and is optimized at every time of the three stages to provide the least upper bound in tectonic force according to the maximum strength theorem. The development of the thrust or its arrest because of the initiation of another thrust is decided by selecting the event which leads to the least upper bound in tectonic force. The approach is first validated by proving that the critical slope angle a c for the classical triangular wedge is properly captured. It is shown that a perturbation, in the form of an extra relief in this perfectly triangular geometry, leads to the onset of thrusting with the ramp or the back thrust outcropping either at the back or to the front of the perturbation, respectively, for a range of slope dip close to the critical angle a c . The study of normal thrust sequences (from the rear to the front in the wedge toe) reveals that weakening of the ramp, accounted for by changing its friction angle from an initial to a smaller final value, is necessary for each thrust to have a finite life span. This life span is longer with a larger relief buildup for more pronounced weakening. Decreasing the décollement friction angle results in an increase in the number of thrusts in the sequence, each thrust creating milder relief. The normal sequence is ended with the first out of sequence thrust which occurs earlier for smaller weakening over the ramp. The proposed methodology is partly used to construct an inverse method proposed to assess the likeliness for the transfer of activity from the active to the incipient thrust in a section of Nankai's accretionary wedge. The inverse method provides the initial friction angle over the incipient ramp and the final friction angle over the fully active ramp, from the geometry of the corresponding thrusts, and the topography. It is shown that the friction angle over the incipient ramp is most likely to be larger then the one over the active ramp, justifying a key hypothesis needed to predict discrete sequences of thrusting.