The opinions of international organizations, consulting agencies, research centers, domestic and foreign scientists on the impact of war on the economic development of Ukraine are considered. The scale of destruction and loss of the industrial sector as a result of Russian military aggression is assessed in view of its critical role in ensuring Ukraine's defense capability, recovery and growth of its economy. The authors’ approach to assessing the consequences of Russian military aggression for Ukrainian industry, in contrast to existing developments, takes into account sectoral and regional aspects of transformation and offers a basis for substantiating the vectors of Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery aimed at reducing the risks of damage to industrial facilities, ensuring integrity and functionality of domestic industrial complex in the face of prolonged military threats. It is shown that in most regions of the country, an outdated industrial structure has increased the level of security threats to Ukrainian economy in the new generation warfare: hybrid, non-contact, long-range, aimed at targeted destruction of industrial and infrastructural facilities. Post-war reconstruction of industry should be based on territorial and sectoral diversification, innovative development of the military-industrial complex and providing it with scientific basis, formation of a new system of international trade logistics. The economic prospects for Ukraine's recovery are uncertain and will be largely influenced by the ongoing military conflict. At the same time, the country's success in the military confrontation is determined not only by military and financial assistance, but also to a large extent by the stability of its economic foundation – industrial sector. Thus, ensuring the proper functioning of the industry requires both immediate actions to restore production processes by relocation from hazardous areas, establishment of new logistics chains, etc., and formation of strategic goals for reconstruction and identification of sectoral recovery vectors.

Introduction. The article substantiates the importance of the industrial development to strengthening the country's defense capability and ensure the civilian population needs. Based on a comparison of the financing of the defense complex in different countries, it is shown that, in addition to direct military expenditures, defense capability depends on a developed industrial complex. Prospective types of industrial activity in Ukraine, which have a high degree of influence on meeting the needs of the economy in the conditions of war time, have been identified. New technologies for ensuring defense capability are defined and tools for digital and innovative transformations in Ukrainian industry are proposed. Materials and methods. The substantiation of the industrial complex capabilities to strengthen the national security, the determination of key areas of production to meet the needs of the economy in the conditions of war time, as well as the set of tools for realizing such capabilities in Ukraine was carried out by dialectical, formal-legal, systemic-structural and comparative methods. The dialectical method made it possible to determine the possibilities of manufacturing modern means of defense and products for the lifesaving of the country's population. With the help of the formal-legal method, the content of the norms of separate current normative legal acts of Ukraine, which define the concept of the country's defense capability, is highlighted. The use of the system-structural method made it possible to determine key strategic goals and key strategic initiatives for digital and innovative transformations in Ukrainian industry. Comparative methods of economic and statistical analysis based on statistical data of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation were used to determine the trends in the financing of defense expenditures in different countries. Results and discussion.Countering military threats depends on the state's ability to ensure the safety of the population and the integrity of the territory, where a powerful industrial complex plays the main role. Financing of the defense sector for the supply of weapons and means of warfare in Ukraine is insufficient compared to other countries, although during wartime its volumes increase. At the same time, it is impossible to imagine a combat-ready army without proper provision of special uniforms, protective equipment, food, fuel and lubricants, medicines, etc. All this confirms the importance of a developed industrial complex in creating available resources to meet the needs of not only the civilian population, but also the needs of the army. To increase the country's readiness for military threats, it is necessary to activate innovative transformations in advance by introducing technologies to production processes in industry, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning; robotics, bioinformatics, blockchain, and countermeasures against cyber threats. The wide application of such technologies in all spheres of scientific, industrial and military activity will allow strengthening the country's defense capabilities and provide additional opportunities for managing combat operations, destroying enemy equipment and preventing infiltration into the country's territory; hiding one's positions and masking; conducting search and rescue operations; data collection and documentation of war crimes; protection, productivity and life support, as well as to counter cyberattacks. Conclusions. As a result of the study, a list of advanced Industry 4.0 technologies was determined, the production of which can be organized at Ukrainian factories with the cooperation of foreign partners. The primary measures to accelerate the technological transformation of Ukrainian production based on the establishment of an effective dialogue between state and local authorities, national manufacturers and scientific and educational institutions, as well as close cooperation with European and international clusters, are substantiated.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not an accidental phenomenon, but a long-term hybrid war, based on premises and conditions that are specific to the historical and political context. It leads to huge losses: human suffering and disastrous socio-economic shocks. Also the war has prevented the socio-economic development and progress not only in Ukraine, but throughout the world. The authors had established that countering military threats depends on the state ability to ensure the safety of the population and the integrity of the territory, where a powerful industrial complex plays the main role. Opportunities for protection, which Industry 4.0 technologies open, have been identified, in particular, tracking the movement of enemy equipment, fixing information about war crimes, conducting search and rescue operations; preventing the penetration of enemy equipment into the territory; countering cyber attacks and protecting people from serious injuries. As a result of the study, a list of useful Industry 4.0 technologies has been identified, the production of which can be organized in Ukrainian manufacturing with cooperation between foreign partners. The priority measures to accelerate the technological transformation of Ukrainian manufacturing based on the establishment of an effective dialogue between state and local authorities, national manufacturers and scientific and educational institutions, as well as close cooperation with European and international clusters are justified.

The contours of policy for macroeconomic stabilization and industrial development that was implemented for post-war recovery by the countries of Europe, Asia, and Africa, which experienced wars and conflicts in the 20th and 21st centuries, are outlined; its historical and economic background is revealed. The factors that determined the industrial revival trajectory in each country are singled out: global, institutional, macroeconomic, resource, innovative and technological, etc. The results of the "Marshall Plan" implementation in European countries and Japan, as well as other types of international aid for the affected countries, are evaluated. The multiplicity of state’s behavioral patterns, which determined the choice of specific direction of industrial revival, is noted: restructuring of industrial sector (Europe), innovative technological modernization (Israel, Asian countries), large industrial projects (Egypt) or the state’s detachment from significant intervention in structural transformations in the economy (Western Balkans countries). The determining role of favorable business climate formation in the post-war period for stimulating the inflow of investments in industrial and other sectors of economy, as well as positive impact of state investments in the development of physical infrastructure and innovation ecosystem, is revealed. It is determined that the post-war recovery of industry took place quickly and had stable results in countries where market principles of economic management and stable institutions were formed (Western Europe); in Asian countries, the recovery process had short-term successes after World War II, but industrial modernization actually took decades due to differences in the economic development strategies of different governments. Insufficient attention of the state to the industrial sector was often the cause of deindustrialization and weak innovative development of the state (Western Balkans countries). It is established that the expected international financial and technical assistance was rarely allocated directly for the support of the industrial sector, which encouraged the states to accumulate their own resources, to preserve the state form of ownership of large industrial objects contrary to the goals of privatization, or to create conditions for attracting foreign investments, forming an export-oriented model of economy.

The purpose of the paper is to develop the most probable scenarios and to determine the strategic directions and effective tools for the Ukrainian industrial recovery, which will ensure the resistance of the economy in the conditions of military challenges. The method of strategic scenarios allows to find out how the industrial development in Ukraine will develop in the course of war and post-war recovery. Methodology. The methods of system analysis and logical modeling were used to describe the transition of the Ukrainian production from the current situation of military crisis to the target one; structural analysis was used to determine the system of indicators characterizing the resistance of the industry. For this purpose, national (State Statistics of Ukraine) and international (World Bank, Eurostat official website) databases characterizing the level and structure of industrial development in the last 5 years were used. The method of calculation takes into account the criteria of changes in indicators: direction (growth/decline occurred); rate of changes based on the cumulative annual growth rate for the period of 5 years. The study was carried out using analytical methods of the influence of trends in the formation of strategic scenarios in unpredictable situations (conditions of wartime uncertainty), to assess changes in the probability of occurrence due to the actual occurrence of one of them, which made it possible to identify trends, justify scenarios and take them into account when analyzing the prospects for industrial development to strengthen the defense capabilities and economic growth of Ukraine. The results of the survey showed that the strategic scenarios for the industrial development of Ukraine will be adjusted as necessary for the post-war industrial recovery in case of a long-term external military threat to preserve the state sovereignty. The achievement of the set strategic goals depends on the driving forces determining the industrial development in Ukraine. As the main indicators characterizing the tendencies of industrial development in Ukraine, the indicators reflecting the efficiency of the use of productive forces have been chosen: indicators of industrial production efficiency; labor productivity; indicators characterizing innovative development; performance indicators of foreign economic activity and investment development. Taking into account the influence of each of the driving forces of industrial development in the conditions of wartime uncertainty, three scenarios of industrial development were developed: a conditionally positive scenario, in which the economic system will gradually stabilize due to the cessation of hostilities and the recovery of production capacities; a conditionally negative scenario, which will be characterized by the disintegration of the economic system, the destruction of energy infrastructure facilities, where negative trends will dominate; a conditionally neutral (basic) scenario, in which the disintegration of the economic system will not reach extreme levels, and industrial production will develop in areas not covered by hostilities. Practical implications. The key problem of restoring economic stability in Ukraine is to create conditions for favorable development of industrial business, which depends on balanced strategic policy decisions. The transformation of industry into an effective force for the revival of the Ukrainian economy in the conditions of the war and post-war period requires a balanced strategic management of the future development, because it is crucial to meet the unprecedented demands of the war on the available resources of the country and to prevent a social, humanitarian, economic, financial, environmental, military crisis. At the same time, traditional methods of indicative planning cannot take into account all factors of wartime uncertainty, therefore, the rationale of future development vectors based on scenario planning makes it possible to create conditions for minimizing threats and realizing potential opportunities. Value/originality. Strategic scenarios provide for better economic recovery planning with long-term national priorities, development strategies of related industries and sectors for ensuring the Ukrainian manufacturing resistance.