• Key message High-elevation forests in the Alps protect infrastructure and human lives against natural hazards such as rockfall, flooding, and avalanches. Routinely performed silvicultural interventions maintain the required stand structure but are not commercially viable in remote forests due to high operational costs. Financial subsidies for the management of high-elevation protection forests are an efficient strategy to ensure sustainable forest cover. • Context Presently, many high-elevation forests in the Alps are managed in order to ensure the provision of ecosystem services with emphasis on the minimization of natural hazards. • Aims We studied the possible economic performance of a high-elevation protection forest from an owner's perspective. We investigated whether the increase in productivity due to climate change and a favorable market for the dominating cembran pine (Pinus cembra L.) are sufficient for profitable timber production in protection forests. Keywords Growth modeling • Soil carbon pool • Climate change • Mountain forest • Forest management costs Handling Editor: Andreas Bolte Contributions of the co-authors NJ performed the economical analysis and co-wrote the manuscript. RJ conceived the experiment, participated in field work and data analysis, and co-wrote the manuscript. AS participated in data analyzing and interpretation and co-wrote the manuscript. This article is part of the topical collection on Forest Adaptation and Restoration under Global Change Extended author information available on the last page of the article.