PurposeThis paper discusses plausible future scenarios for small and medium tourism enterprises (SMTEs) in the “sun, sea and sand” destination of the Canary Islands (Spain) and assesses to what extent they are prepared to adjust to market changes and technological developments in the light of both sudden disruptions and long-term shocks.Design/methodology/approachA scenario analysis was made based upon expert interviews, leading to a 2 × 2 scenario matrix.FindingsAlthough regional, national and European strategies advocate digital transformation as a step towards building resilience and towards a more sustainable future, this study identifies two major uncertainties that can put that transformation at risk: a change of the traditional “sun, sand and sea” visitor to a more conscious, individual and inquisitive traveller or “Promad”, and the business culture of SMTEs.Research limitations/implicationsResilience for sudden and for slow-paced disruptions poses different challenges for SMTEs. Their next step in the digital transformation must take them form marketing and sales-oriented e-business to growing interconnectivity and innovation across supply chains.Practical implicationsA market change towards the “Promad” type of traveller causes at least a temporary mismatch of demand and supply. As many SMTEs miss either the knowledge or the resources to invest in digital transformation, the process will depend on support and coordination at destination level.Originality/valueThe study identifies, with the example of the Canary Islands, the difficulties for destinations and individual businesses in making the envisioned transition of mass tourism to more competitive forms of tourism with a smaller ecological footprint.