The research deals with the construction, implementation and analysis of the model of the non-equilibrium financial market using econophysical approach and the theory of nonlinear oscillations. We used the scaled variation of supply and demand prices and elasticity of these two variables as dynamic variables in the simulation of the non-equilibrium financial market. View of the dynamic variables data was determined based on the strength of econophysical prerequisites using the model of hydrodynamic type. As a result, we found that the non-equilibrium market can be described with a good degree of accuracy with oscillator models with nonlinear rigidity and a self-oscillating system with inertial self-excitation. The most important states of model of oscillation non-equilibrium model of the market were found, including the appearance of chaos and its mechanisms. We have made the calculations of the correlation dimension for the financial time series. The results show that all observed time series have a clearly defined chaotic dynamic nature.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of acute appendicitis in children is often established late, which leads to complications, lethal outcomes are recorded. AIM: To identify and analyze the factors contributing to the late diagnosis of acute appendicitis in children. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 279 case histories of children was carried out. The duration of symptoms is divided into time 1 (before hospitalization) and time 2 (from hospitalization to surgery). Patients were divided into two groups: 1st with destructive uncomplicated appendicitis (phlegmonous, gangrenous), 2nd with complicated appendicitis (unrestricted peritonitis, infiltrate, abscess). The causes of late hospitalization, symptoms indicated in the case histories, examinations performed, postoperative complications were analyzed. The diagnosis was established on the basis of intraoperative data, histological examination. RESULTS: In the 1st group, time 1 and time 2 were significantly less than in the 2nd (p 0.001; 0.028). Late presentation (24 hours) in 21.9%, misdiagnosis in 12.2% of cases. In the hospital, the observation of the patient 12 hours in 21.1% of patients. The frequency of presence / absence of a description of clinical and laboratory signs of acute appendicitis is from 100 to 19.7%. The 2nd group was characterized by: duration of symptoms 24 hours, repeated vomiting (p 0.001), febrile condition (p 0.001), increase in neutrophils 90% (8792%). Ultrasound examination with evaluation of the appendix in 20.1% of cases with a diagnostic accuracy of 89.3%. Laparoscopic appendectomy in 53.2% Alvarado scores are significantly higher in 2nd group (810) than in 1st group (79, p 0.001). In 1st group, complications were significantly less than 3.4% than in 2nd group 22.7 % (p 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Factors contributing to the late diagnosis of appendicitis in children are: late treatment, diagnostic errors at the prehospital stage, incomplete clinical examination and observation, insufficient use of laboratory and instrumental methods.

No abstract

Данная работа посвящена применению двуслойных интервальных взвешенных графов в прогнозировании нестационарных временных рядов и оценке по полученным прогнозам рыночных рисков. Первый слой графа с интервальными вершинами, формируемый во время первичного обучения системы, отображает все возможные флуктуации системы в отрезке времени, в котором обучали систему. Интервальные вершины второго слоя графа (надстройка над графом первого слоя), отображающие степень ошибки моделируемых значений временного ряда, соединены ребрами с вершинами графа первого слоя. Предложенная модель апробирована на получении 90-дневного прогноза цен на стальные биллеты. Средняя ошибка прогноза составила 2,6 %, что меньше средней ошибки авторегрессионных прогнозов. Ключевые слова: рыночные риски, прогнозирование, нестационарные временные ряды, двуслойные интервальные взвешенные графы