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ABSTRACT:The Japanese Central Disaster Management Council announced a new damage estimate in the event of an earthquake with its epicenter in the Nankai Trough. The estimate shows the huge human damage. However, they mentioned the possibility of minimizing the casualty count by constant preparation for prompt evacuation to higher places in the event of a tsunami. This study aims to develop a reliability analysis model for medical transport activity considering a tsunami risk. The model includes a risk evaluation model developed to evaluate medical transport activity when a tsunami early warning system can be used. By applying it to Chita Peninsula in Japan, it is demonstrated that the proposed model effectively implements the evacuation and medical transport planning. Some proposals are given for the road network in the area.

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