We conducted the current study to determine the impact of demographic factors, household income, clinical manifestations, disease activity, serologic tests, and calendar year on survival among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). In a large prospective cohort of patients with SLE, we used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate survival probabilities of SLE patients over time since diagnosis. We analyzed the predictors of survival in SLE using Cox proportional hazards models.The study included 1378 patients with SLE, with a median follow-up in the cohort of 6.1 years. One hundred eighteen patients died (8.6%). The overall cumulative probability of survival after disease diagnosis at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years was 95%, 91%, 85%, and 78%, respectively. Based on a multivariable model, age at SLE diagnosis >or=50 years old (hazard ratio [HR]=5.9; p<.001) and male gender (HR=2.4; p=.004) were associated with poorer survival. Patients with annual family income<25,000 dollars had poorer survival (HR=1.7; p=.040). The presence of hemolytic anemia in the first year after disease diagnosis (p=.016) or during the follow-up period (p=.031) increased the risk of death. A low complement level during the first year after diagnosis was the only serologic marker of poorer survival (p=.013 for low C3 level and p=.053 for low C4 level).

The objective of this study was to identify clinical predictors of response to initial mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) therapy for membranous lupus nephritis (MLN). We observed the clinical outcomes of patients in the Hopkins Lupus Cohort within the first year of initiation of treatment with MMF therapy for newly diagnosed MLN, classified according to the new International Society of Nephrology/Renal Pathology Society (ISN/RPS) 2003 classification. Complete renal remission was defined as proteinuria less than 500 mg/24 hours. Demographic, clinical, treatment and laboratory data were examined for their association with renal remission. Twenty-nine MLN patients treated with MMF were identified. Eleven (38%) patients achieved complete renal remission by 12 months. Of those taking hydroxychloroquine, 7/11 (64%) were in remission within 12 months compared to only 4/18 (22%) of those not on hyroxychloroquine (P = 0.036 based on a log-rank test). This association persisted after controlling for the presence of anti-ds-DNA (P = 0.026). Our results provide evidence that hydroxychloroquine has a benefit for renal remission when MMF is used as the initial therapy for MLN. Although hydroxychloroquine is frequently stopped in patients with lupus nephritis, this study suggests it should be started or maintained.

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