In modern conditions, the prediction of the morbidity of the population is becoming one of the most urgent tasks of public health worldwide. For state and international health services, with the help of forecasting the possible incidence and prevalence of various diseases in the general population, it becomes necessary to improve the system of providing specialized care due to the possibility of an updated calculation of the necessary resources. Purpose of the study is to analyze the methodological basis for predicting the morbidity of the population based on the study and generalization of literary sources. Materials and methods. The materials for the analysis were scientific publications on the issues of forecasting and modeling of morbidity in various subgroups of the population and territories of the Russian Federation and other countries. In the course of the research, such methods as comparative analysis, study and generalization of experience, bibliographic were used. Results. Currently, there are a number of studies devoted to disease prediction, and the number of methodological approaches to predicting possible changes in the epidemiological situation in various territories is growing. The study provides an overview of existing methodological approaches to predicting the morbidity of the population in Russia and in the world community. Findings. Thus, the analysis of the experience of predicting morbidity made it possible to determine the features of the use of certain mixed methods of forecasting different classes, groups and types of diseases, especially when identifying new viruses and infectious diseases.

The implementation of the healthcare development strategy, effective management of the healthcare system is impossible without monitoring and comprehensive comparative analysis at various levels of the state and development of the network, resources and activities of medical organizations, individual services and the healthcare system as a whole. P u r p o s e of the study is scientific assessment of the state of the network of medical organizations providing medical care in outpatient and inpatient settings, as well as analysis of the provision of beds for the population of the Russian Federation in 2012–2019. M a t e r i a l s a n d m e t h o d s . Within the framework of the conducted research, official statistics data were analyzed, modern trends and trends in the provision of beds and the state of the network of medical organizations in Russia at the regional level were determined. Statistical data processing was carried out using SPSS, Excel‑2007 packages. Such methods as analytical, statistical methods, study and generalization of experience, comparative analysis were used. R e s u l t s . The analysis has shown that the unevenness and the level of high differentiation of indicators of provision of beds by subjects of the Russian Federation remains. Thus, over the period 2012–2019, the provision of specialized beds for all the main profiles of beds is decreasing, the largest reduction affected socially significant beds – dermatovenerological – by 1,5 times, as well as therapeutic – by 32,5%, gastroenterological – by 28,2%, pediatric – by 24,4%, and infectious – by 20,3%. F i n d i n g s . The results of this study confirm the reduction in the number of beds of the main profiles, as well as the conversion of part of the bed stock, especially in the context of a pandemic of a new coronavirus infection, which showed the need for structural and functional transformations of health resources in general and the bed stock in particular.