Purpose – The article is aimed at evaluation of the patterns of demographic processes development in terms of their impact on shaping the level of countries’ economic security. Research methodology – The study is based on a multidimensional estimation technique, which proposes the development of an integral indicator of the demographic component of countries’ economic security. Stochastic research methods, in particular the t-test method, were used to identify and justify different hazard zones. Findings – On the basis of the formed sample of the countries, the integral indices of the level of the demographic component of countries’ economic security for the period of 2000–2018 were calculated. The thresholds of demographic security indicators were identified and reasoned; the countries’ security risks by demographic indicators were assessed; systematisation of countries according to the level of the demographic component of security was provided. Research limitations – It is proposed to include ten indicators in the structure of the index of the demographic component of economic security; these indicators characterise different aspects of the demographic processes development. However, this is not a complete list of possible valuation indicators. This determines the necessity of further studies in terms of justifying the advisability of including various parameters and assessing the degree of their importance in the structure of the demographic security index. Practical implications – The practical value of the results of the comprehensive analysis of the demographic processes development in the system of ensuring countries’ economic security is the possibility of identifying real or potential threats to the sustainable social and economic development of countries and regions of the world. Originality/Value – The authors’ improved methodology for assessing the level of economic security based on the demographic component consideration, taking into account the system of proposed indices, allows to assess the level of security, to monitor its changes and to identify factors that pose risks not only for one country but also for groups of countries both in regional dimension and in terms of the level of their development.
The study is devoted to the investigation of the educational determinants as components in shaping the level of socio-economic development of countries around the world, including assessment of the impact of national higher education system development indicators on the determinants of economic development, in particular macroeconomic, innovation, and technology determinants.Based on the grouping of 50 countries, a matrix of relationships between the Universitas 21 index and global competitiveness index was constructed. It is determined that despite the close correlation between the indices as a whole (0.96), there is a certain differentiation of influence in groups. The high impact of education on global competitiveness (0.76) was found in the group of countries with a medium level of competitiveness, moderate impact (0.54) – in the group of highly competitive countries, weak impact (0.38) – in the group of countries with a low level of competitiveness. Based on the correlation-regression analysis, the study proposes a structural-logical graph of the relationship between educational and economic indicators and quantifies it accordingly. The results show that the level of higher education competitiveness is closely correlated with such indicators as the level of global innovation development (0.8 over the period 2012-2020), the level of the knowledge intensity of GDP (0.73), and the level of socio-economic development (0.75). The results will allow changes in education indicators to be taken into account in the context of their impact on economic development and global development strategies.
The paper is aimed at quantitative evaluation of the level of countries’ financial solvency based on the use of a multidimensional methodical toolkit for evaluating financial indicators of a country’s development, which results in the construction of the appropriate integral security indices. Unlike other methods to assess the level of security, the proposed approach makes it possible to determine not only the integrated level of a financial component of the economic security but also to calculate the quantitative thresholds of the financial indicators aggregated in the integral index (gold and currency reserves, external debt per capita, changes in the official local currency rate, budget deficit/surplus to GDP); going beyond the threshold values is a signal of the increased risk and lack of solvency. Comprehensive consideration of the financial indicators, taken from the official statictic databases or calculated basing on the official statictics, in the structure of the integral index helps quantify the level of a financial component in the system of ensuring countries’ economic security. The proposed approach is approbated in terms of the countries for which the level of a component of the financial solvency (critical, dangerous, unsatisfactory, safe, and optimal) has been calculated. From the practical viewpoint, the proposed toolkit makes it possible to identify actual and potential threats to the countries’ sustainable development. The obtained integral indices of security can be used as the variables in economic and mathematical models while evaluating the effect of security status on the global economic development and positions of certain countries, communities, and regions in the system of world economic relationships.
The study is aimed at analyzing methods of country’s debt security evaluation, developing methodic approach towards estimating the level of debt security based on the calculation of the integral index, and assessing the level of debt security of CEE countries on the basis of the proposed approach. A method of calculating the integral debt security index of the country is developed, taking into account generally accepted thresholds of indebtedness and solvency indicators and the trend of countries’ increasing dependence on external borrowing. The proposed approach is practically tested in assessing the level of debt security of CEE countries. It is determined that the group of CEE countries is differentiated by the state of indebtedness and solvency. The highest level of debt security is demonstrated by Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Estonia, the worst situation with the debt security is formed in Slovakia and Slovenia. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of integral debt security indices for 2007–2019, the grouping of CEE countries by the level and zones of debt security, the trends of deterioration of the region’s debt security in 2010–2015 and its improvement in 2016–2019 has been found out. The proposed approach is universal one; it can be used to calculate debt security indices and to provide comparative studies of the debt sector of any country or region. It can also help to identify weaknesses in country’s debt security that is critically important for reasoning the public policy measures to ensure a proper level of debt security.
For the vast majority of countries, creating a favorable investment environment, which determines the possibility of attracting foreign capital, is a prerequisite for economic growth, addressing issues of national interests and a sufficient level of economic security. The presented article aims to assess the development of international investment activities to ensure countries’ investment security as components of economic security. Using multidimensional evaluation methods, construction of complex indicators, methods of statistical grouping, measurement of stochastic relationships, the integrated level of investment security of Central and Eastern European countries is determined. The assessment results showed that such countries as Estonia, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania have the highest level of investment security and are among the countries that have strengthened their investment security positions over the period. The countries’ evaluation shows that 46% of the countries surveyed were classified as countries with a safe level of investment development. According to the results of correlation analysis, it was determined that the Investment Security Index is more correlated with the state of the investment climate of the country; in the group of Central and Eastern European countries, there is a close correlation with the level of investment attractiveness, which means that for these countries, macroeconomic stability and stable dynamics of socio-economic growth are the factors determining investment opportunities. The obtained results should be considered to identify the basic risks of the investment environment.
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