No abstract

Bu çalıĢma, güç geçiĢ teorisi"nin temel varsayımlarını açıklayarak Türkçe literatüre katkıda bulunmak amacıyla hazırlanmıĢtır. Ülkelerin gücünü oluĢturan iç kapasiteleri, ekonomik, askeri, demografik, topraksal ve teknolojik birçok değiĢkeni kapsar. Bu içsel kapasiteler durağan değildir. Devletlerin askeri ve ekonomik büyümelerinin getirdiği yükseliĢ trendi, bu devletlerin güçlerinin birbirlerine yaklaĢarak uluslararası sistemin istikrarsızlaĢmasına neden olur. Uluslararası sistemde tatmin olmayan devletlerin, uluslararası sistem hiyerarĢisinde bir revizyon yaratma giriĢimi, küresel sistemi savaĢa sürükleyebilir. Bu çalıĢma uluslararası sistemdeki kırılmaları ampirik yöntemlerle ortaya koyan Organski"nin güç geçiĢ teorisi aracılığı ile günümüz uluslararası sistemini analiz etmek amacıyla hazırlanmıĢtır. Bu bağlamda güç geçiĢ teorisinin temel varsayımları ortaya konularak günümüzde yaĢanan sistemik kırılmaların dünya siyasetini nasıl etkilediği incelenmektedir. Literatürde önemli ölçüde güç geçiĢ teorisi uygulaması bulunmakla birlikte gerek yerel hiyerarĢide gerekse uluslararası hiyerarĢide Çin"in yükseliĢi ampirik olarak gözlemlenebilir niteliktedir. Nitekim yeni hegemonun Çin olacağı birçok yazarın ortak görüĢü olup verilerle de desteklenmektedir. This study was prepared to explain the basic assumptions of Power Transition Theory in order to contribute Turkish international relations literature. The analysis of material capacities of countries comprises various variables such as economic, military, demographic, territorial and technological. These material capacities are not constant. Rising military and economic trends of national material capabilities may result in instability of the international system, due to power parity among the states. At the end of this process, the World may be dragged into a global war due to the dissatisfaction of the states. This study is prepared to explain power shifts within the international system on the basis of Organski"s Power Transition Theory. It is reviewed in the context of this study that how World politics is affected by the systemic disequilibrium. Power Transition Theory and the rise of China is empirically one of the most studied cases in the context of local and international hierarchy. Indeed, most scholars accept that the new preponderant would possibly be China after the US hegemony on the basis of empirical analyses.

Why leaders decide to go to war or when they decide to make peace? It can be one of the most common questions of classical thinkers and current scholars of international relations. The basic idea behind this question is to find out a solution to the war phenomenon. However, the other question is how we understand and explain the behaviors of leaders and their inner circles? Do rationality, strategic calculations or only cognitive variables sufficiently explain the violent behaviors? This research discusses how different methodologies can contribute to theorizing or understand the international conflict behaviors of leaders. In this context, on a qualitative basis, psychobiography, psychohistory, leadership trait analysis, integrative complexity method are explained along with the quantitative findings and theories of leaders and international conflict. The methodological diversity provides both deep insights about specific leaders' war decisions and general theories that can contribute to the scientific study of international conflict. I argue that the field is open to any new methodology.

This study aims to reveal how the European integration process provided opportunity for the positive peace among European states. Apart from the classical theories of integration such as functionalism, neo-functionalism or federalism, the reducing effect of European mechanisms/rules upon the war proneness of nations are discussed within the frame of war theories. In this context, it is argued that the EU institutions, body of rules and frameworks have a reduction effect on war proneness of European nations. Based on the peace scale that developed by Klein, Goertz and Diehl (2006), this argument is examined within the system, dyadic and state levels of war theories in the scope of the article. Theories of war about these three levels help explain that the European Union has a significant impact on declining militarization, controlling of excessive capacity development, decreasing proclivities of conflict resolution through power politics, reinforcing to resolve territorial problems by peaceful methods, encouraging to construct a pluralistic security community and has thus achieved construction of a stable hierarchy between and among European nations. In that sense, the finding of war theories indicate that the EU provides a measurable positive peace, obviously fit for positive peace in the scale, which makes the war improbable among European nations.