We evaluated three cellular and five serologic markers that are affected by infection with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) for their ability to predict the progression to clinical acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The cellular markers were the number of CD4+ T cells, the number of CD8+ T cells, and the ratio of CD4+ T cells to CD8+ T cells. The serologic markers were the serum levels of neopterin (a product of stimulated macrophages), beta 2-microglobulin, soluble interleukin-2 receptors, IgA, and HIV p24 antigen. We evaluated the usefulness of these measures as markers of the progression to AIDS prospectively, over four years, in a cohort of 395 HIV-seropositive homosexual men who were initially free of AIDS. CD4+ T cells (expressed as an absolute number, a percentage of lymphocytes, or a ratio of CD4+ to CD8+ T cells) were the best single predictor of the progression to AIDS, but the serum neopterin and beta 2-microglobulin levels each had nearly as much predictive power. The neopterin level appeared to be a slightly better predictor than the beta 2-microglobulin level. The levels of IgA, interleukin-2 receptors, and p24 antigen had less predictive value. A stepwise multivariate analysis indicated that the best predictors, in descending order, were CD4+ T cells (the percentage of lymphocytes or the CD4+: CD8+ ratio), the serum level of neopterin or beta 2-microglobulin, the level of IgA, that of interleukin-2 receptors, and that of p24 antigen. The last three markers had little additional predictive power beyond that of the first two. We conclude that of the eight markers studied, progression to AIDS was predicted most accurately by the level of CD4+ T cells in combination with the serum level of either neopterin or beta 2-microglobulin. At least one of these two serum markers, which reflect immune activation, should be used along with measurement of CD4+ T cells in disease-classification schemes and in the evaluation of responses to therapy.

Although human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 infection is efficiently transmitted by sexual intercourse, some individuals whose sexual behavior places them at extremely high risk for infection have nevertheless remained HIV-1-seronegative. An investigation was undertaken to determine whether such individuals have circulating T helper cells that are sensitized to HIV-1. Five very high risk men who had recent sexual exposure to HIV-1 were studied. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells from all 5 produced interleukin (IL)-2 in culture in response to synthetic amphipathic HIV-1 envelope peptides. One of the 5 high-risk men has subsequently seroconverted, while 4 have remained seronegative. All were initially culture-negative, and those who have remained seronegative were also virus-negative by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing 10 months after they were first studied. These results demonstrate that a cell-mediated immune response to HIV-1 can be detected in the absence of a humoral immune response in individuals recently exposed to HIV-1. Furthermore, IL-2 production by T cells in response to synthetic peptides may be a more sensitive test for exposure to HIV-1 than antibody, lymphoproliferation, or PCR tests.

Infection with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), as demonstrated by viral cultures, has been described in some patients before antibodies to HIV-1 can be detected, but the duration and frequency of such latent infections are uncertain. We selected prospectively a cohort of 133 seronegative homosexual men who continued to be involved in high-risk sexual activity, and we cultured 225 samples of their peripheral-blood lymphocytes, using mitogen stimulation to activate the integrated HIV-1 genome. HIV-1 was isolated in blood samples from 31 of the 133 men (23 percent), 27 of whom have remained seronegative for up to 36 months after the positive culture. The other four men seroconverted 11 to 17 months after the isolation of HIV-1. In three of them, we studied cryopreserved lymphocytes obtained earlier, using the polymerase chain reaction to amplify small amounts of viral DNA, and we demonstrated that HIV-1 provirus had been present 23, 35, and 35 months before seroconversion. We conclude that HIV-1 infection in homosexual men at high risk may occur at least 35 months before antibodies to HIV-1 can be detected. A prolonged period of latency in such infections may be more common than previously recognized; the degree of infectiousness during such periods is unknown.

Plasma levels of soluble TNF-RII and other soluble markers of immune activation have prognostic capabilities which are different from HIV and CD4 T-cell levels. Combination of a single plasma activation marker measurement (such as soluble TNF-RII) with CD4 T-cell levels improved the prognostic capability of each. A new graphic technique for presenting prognostic capability indicated that plasma soluble TNF-RII and CD4 cell levels are better prognostic factors than HIV plasma level with CD4 cells < 200 x 10(6)/l. Inexpensive tests for one of the plasma activation markers, such as soluble TNF-RII or neopterin, can be useful for evaluations of HIV disease course, especially when expensive equipment, technical expertise and funding required for flow cytometry and for HIV load measurements are not readily available.