Background: Early biomarkers of prodromal Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are critical both to initiate interventions and to choose participants for clinical trials. Odor threshold, odor identification and odor familiarity are impaired in AD. Methods: We investigated the relative abilities of standard screening (MMSE) and olfactory measures to predict transitions from cognitively normal (CN) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI), from CN to AD, and MCI to AD. The archival sample of 497, from the UCSD ADRC, included participants who were CN, MCI, AD and converters to MCI or AD. Apoe ε4 status, a genetic risk factor, was available for 256 participants, 132 were ε4 carriers. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curve plots the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to determine diagnostic accuracy. Results: Different measures were better predictors at specific stages of disease risk; e.g., odor familiarity, odor identification and the combination showed higher predictive value for converting from MCI to AD in ε4 carriers than the MMSE. Combining odor familiarity and odor identification produced an AUC of 1.0 in ε4 carriers, MMSE alone was 0.58. Conclusions: Olfactory biomarkers show real promise as non-invasive indicators of prodromal AD. The results support the value of combining olfactory measures in assessment of risk for conversion to MCI and to AD.

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