The intensive use of water resources and the transformation of natural landscapes under the influence of human economic activity have led to changes in the natural water balance of river drainage basins. The negative processes thereof are intensified by climatic changes that have significantly disturbed the hydrological regime, determined by changes in water content and river flow dynamics. The retrospective study and prediction of the flow of the Dnieper River was carried out using multivariate statistics and adaptive methods of nonlinear time series analysis. The anomalous features were identified and the main periods of changes in the water regime of the river for 190 years (1818-2008) were determined using the standard root-mean-square deviation and wavelet analysis. As a result of non-linear prediction, it was determined that if the tendency of anthropogenic and climatic formation of the water regime of the Dnieper River sustains, there is a 90% probability of insignificant but steady trend and cyclical reduction of the average annual flow by 1.6 m 3 /s per year to 1120 ± 270 m 3 /s by 2040. The results of the detailed retrospective analysis for 190 years and the prediction of the probability of changes in the flow of the Dnieper river confirm the previous conclusions of many scientists regarding the significant transformation of the ecosystem of the transboundary river and provide new knowledge regarding the main stages of formation of the water regime and the probability of further regulation of the flow of the Dnieper river if the current conditions of the negative impact of economic activities are maintained in the transboundary basin.

The balance calculations in agriculture are the basis for assessing the value of land and determining how to use it effectively. Replenishing the humus balance in soils is a long and multifactorial process, and therefore requires considerable expenditures to control it. Therefore, scientists pay particular attention to the benefits and the need to create geoinformation portals, first and foremost, in the agricultural sector in order to create effective market-based tools for balancing soil quality. However, today Ukraine has little experience in creating portals and software for the implementation of soil fertility balance calculations in the online system for the purpose of organizing organic land use. The article deals with the methods of humus balance calculation and the formulation of the humus balance calculation task, which will take into account regional peculiarities of Ukraine's Rivne region with the possibility of scaling to other areas. A mathematical model of the corresponding problem using differential equations was constructed. A numerical solution was found and implemented as the e-calculator module of online information system. The integration of IT technologies with the example of humus balance e-calculator for organic land use will allow crop rotations modeling and volumes of organic fertilizer application to stabilize or improve the soil quality. The main task of the calculator was to provide specific recommendations for the land plot on the efficiency of its use. In addition, the information system provided the background information on the economic efficiency of the transition to organic farming, certification, processing and marketing rules. The user can independently specify the order of crops cultivation in rotation, the amount of organic fertilizer application and as a result will receive the possible variants of the total humus content in the soil, for different volumes of application of organic fertilizers (biohumus) using the e-calculator of humus balance. The testing and verification of the e-calculator was carried out on the last 40 years data of the Rivne branch of the Soils Protection Institute of Ukraine, taking into account the cultivated crops, the introduction of mineral and organic fertilizers.

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to assess the socio-ecological and economic efficiency of the organic land-use through the economic substantiation of the organic production development in the Western Polissia regions and its impact on the population health. Methodology / approach. We used general scientific and special research methods for the study. With methods of comparisons, extrapolations, correlations and the regression analysis, we could give an ecological and economical estimate for costs using for the organic land-use engineering and for the feasibility evaluation of the organic production development. The synthesis method was useful in determining the socio-economic efficiency of growing organic products. The State Statistics Service data, collections of health indicators and the activities of medical institutions in the Rivne region became the initial basis for the present study. Results. We made the scientific rationale for the organic production development in the Western Polissia, namely, in Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions, determined the stabilizing costs for the quality condition of 1 hectare of agricultural land. Moreover, the absence of a direct and close relationship between the agro-ecological indicators of soils and the rate of land certification was proved. It was proposed to use the economic criteria for the agricultural land suitability relative to the organic production, as they are defined as informational rather than restrictive. Mathematical modeling helped to evidence the existence of a relationship between the volume of mineral fertilizers applied per hectare of sown area and the level of the population oncological morbidity exemplified by Rivne region, resulting in mathematical models obtained and applied for the predictive estimates of health problems among the population in Rivne region for the coming years. Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, the assessment of the socio-economic efficiency of the organic land use was carried out with the involvement of economic justification for the development of organic production in Western Polissia regions and its impact on the population health. Practical value / implications. Key results of the study are primarily actionable for determining the ecological and economic substantiation of the development advisability of the organic production through the implementation of the ecological and economic appraisal of costs using for the organic land-use engineering. In addition to it, another key result is to set the level of reduction in the population morbidity due to a decrease in mineral fertilizers applicable per hectare of sown area.

No abstract

The article substantiates the scientific aspects of export-import operations of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine. The analysis and the prospective areas of the agro-industrial complex in the international market have been analyzed.