Ecological mathematical models are useful tools to define geographic distribution and ecological features of species, playing a fundamental role in defining conservation policies. Through the various methods we can use, recently, those which work with only-presence-data are growing in popularity and particularly MaxEnt. The recent colonization of Foreste Casentinesi National Park by Black Woodpecker represent a very interesting study-case to show how this method work, analysing possible evolution of an expansion process that is still evolving.