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Tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation efforts in Asia are focused on protected areas embedded in human-dominated landscapes. A system of protected areas is an effective conservation strategy for many endangered species if the network is large enough to support stable metapopulations. The long-term conservation of tigers requires that the species be able to meet some of its life-history needs beyond the boundaries of small protected areas and within the working landscape, including multiple-use forests with logging and high human use. However, understanding of factors that promote or limit the occurrence of tigers in working landscapes is incomplete. We assessed the relative influence of protection status, prey occurrence, extent of grasslands, intensity of human use, and patch connectivity on tiger occurrence in the 5400 km(2) Central Terai Landscape of India, adjacent to Nepal. Two observer teams independently surveyed 1009 km of forest trails and water courses distributed across 60 166-km(2) cells. In each cell, the teams recorded detection of tiger signs along evenly spaced trail segments. We used occupancy models that permitted multiscale analysis of spatially correlated data to estimate cell-scale occupancy and segment-scale habitat use by tigers as a function of management and environmental covariates. Prey availability and habitat quality, rather than protected-area designation, influenced tiger occupancy. Tiger occupancy was low in some protected areas in India that were connected to extensive areas of tiger habitat in Nepal, which brings into question the efficacy of current protection and management strategies in both India and Nepal. At a finer spatial scale, tiger habitat use was high in trail segments associated with abundant prey and large grasslands, but it declined as human and livestock use increased. We speculate that riparian grasslands may provide tigers with critical refugia from human activity in the daytime and thereby promote tiger occurrence in some multiple-use forests. Restrictions on human-use in high-quality tiger habitat in multiple-use forests may complement existing protected areas and collectively promote the persistence of tiger populations in working landscapes.

With less than 3200 wild tigers in 2010, the heads of 13 tiger-range countries committed to doubling the global population of wild tigers by 2022. This goal represents the highest level of ambition and commitment required to turn the tide for tigers in the wild. Yet, ensuring efficient and targeted implementation of conservation actions alongside systematic monitoring of progress towards this goal requires that we set site-specific recovery targets and timelines that are ecologically realistic. In this study, we assess the recovery potential of 18 sites identified under WWF’s Tigers Alive Initiative. We delineated recovery systems comprising a source, recovery site, and support region, which need to be managed synergistically to meet these targets. By using the best available data on tiger and prey numbers, and adapting existing species recovery frameworks, we show that these sites, which currently support 165 (118–277) tigers, have the potential to harbour 585 (454–739) individuals. This would constitute a 15% increase in the global population and represent over a three-fold increase within these specific sites, on an average. However, it may not be realistic to achieve this target by 2022, since tiger recovery in 15 of these 18 sites is contingent on the initial recovery of prey populations, which is a slow process. We conclude that while sustained conservation efforts can yield significant recoveries, it is critical that we commit our resources to achieving the biologically realistic targets for these sites even if the timelines are extended.

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