The relationship between performance and working conditions in photobioreactor hydrogen production systems illuminated by a variable intensity light source has been described quantitatively using relational expressions. First, based on the finite volume method and the Michaelis-Menten model, the hydrogen production process of a photobioreactor (PBR) system was simulated numerically. Then, the performance of the PBR system was evaluated considering the hydrogen production rate, dimensionless hydrogen production rate, hydrogen production thrust coefficient and conversion efficiency of light energy to hydrogen energy rate as performance parameters, and the relationship between these parameters and working conditions was studied. Finally, the improved quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization (IQPSO) and surface fitting technique based on the curve fitting method were used to obtain relational expressions about the performance and working conditions of the PBR. All of the results show that the method can obtain accurately relational expressions for the performance optimization and forecasts of the PBR system.