Fire controls tree cover in many savannas by suppressing saplings through repeated topkill and resprouting, causing a demographic bottleneck. Tree cover can increase dramatically if even a small fraction of saplings escape this fire trap, so modeling and management of savanna vegetation should account for occasional individuals that escape the fire trap because they are "better" (i.e., they grow faster than average) or because they are "lucky" (they experience an occasional longer-than-average interval without fire or a below-average fire severity). We quantified variation in growth rates and topkill probability in Quercus laevis (turkey oak) in longleaf pine savanna to estimate the percentage of stems expected to escape the fire trap due to variability in (1) growth rate, (2) fire severity, and (3) fire interval. For trees growing at the mean rate and exposed to the mean fire severity and the mean fire interval, no saplings are expected to become adults under typical fire frequencies. Introducing variability in any of these factors, however, allows some individuals to escape the fire trap. A variable fire interval had the greatest influence, allowing 8% of stems to become adults within a century. In contrast, introducing variation in fire severity and growth rate should allow 2.8% and 0.3% of stems to become adults, respectively. Thus, most trees that escape the fire trap do so because of luck. By chance, they experience long fire-free intervals and/or a low-severity fire when they are not yet large enough to resist an average fire. Fewer stems escape the fire trap by being unusually fast-growing individuals. It is important to quantify these sources of variation and their consequences to improve understanding, prediction, and management of vegetation dynamics of fire-maintained savannas. Here we also present a new approach to quantifying variation in fire severity utilizing a latent-variable model of logistic regression. . Bradstock. 2013. Defining pyromes and global syndromes of FIG. 4. The relationship between the shape of the stem survival function and variance in fire severity. Panels A and B show two survival functions, and C and D show the corresponding probability density functions of fire severity. Thus, A and C correspond to a scenario with little variation in fire severity, while B and D correspond to a scenario with greater variation in fire severity.

. 2014. Global biogeographic regions in a human-dominated world: the case of human diseases.Ecosphere 5(11):143. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00201.1Abstract. Since the work of Alfred Russel Wallace, biologists have sought to divide the world into biogeographic regions that reflect the history of continents and evolution. These divisions not only guide conservation efforts, but are also the fundamental reference point for understanding the distribution of life. However, the biogeography of human-associated species-such as pathogens, crops, or even house guests-has been largely ignored or discounted. As pathogens have the potential for direct consequences on the lives of humans, domestic animals, and wildlife it is prudent to examine their potential biogeographic history. Furthermore, if distinct regions exist for human-associated pathogens, it would provide possible connections between human wellbeing and pathogen distributions, and, more generally, humans and the deep evolutionary history of the natural world. We tested for the presence of biogeographic regions for diseases of humans due to pathogens using country-level disease composition data and compared the regions for vectored and non-vectored diseases. We found discrete biogeographic regions for diseases, with a stronger influence of biogeography on vectored than non-vectored diseases. We also found significant correlations between these biogeographic regions and environmental or sociopolitical factors. While some biogeographic regions reflected those already documented for birds or mammals, others reflected colonial history. From the perspective of diseases caused by pathogens, humans have altered but not evaded the influence of ancient biogeography. This work is the necessary first step in examining the biogeographic relationship between humans and their associates.