ResumoEste artigo investiga a existência e a intensidade da relação entre o calendário das eleições presidenciais brasileiras e a dinâmica da execução orçamentária federal, no período de 1985 a 2010, levando em conta as mudanças institucionais nesse período. Concluiu-se que a política fiscal federal apresenta comportamento cíclico, onde as receitas e despesas públicas estão condicionadas, em boa parte, à periodicidade das eleições presidenciais. Foi inconclusivo o efeito da Emenda à Reeleição sobre a condução da política fiscal. Todavia, a Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal permitiu reduzir as oscilações cíclicas em boa parte das despesas e receitas do orçamento federal.Palavras-chave: Ciclo político; Política fiscal; Orçamento; Eleições; Responsabilidade fiscal; Reeleição. AbstractIn this paper we investigate the existence of a relationship between presidential elections in Brazil and the conduct of fiscal policy by the federal government, along the period from 1985 to 2010. We also look at the possible effects of major institutional changes that took place in Brazil over the period, namely the Fiscal Responsibility act and the presidential reelection amendment to the constitution. Overall, we conclude that at the federal level the conduct of fiscal policy behaves cyclically, following the political calendar. The results for the reelection amendment are inconclusive regarding its true importance for the conduct of fiscal policy at the federal level. However, we found an important role for the fiscal responsibility act in reducing annual fluctuations in some revenues and expenditures of the federal budget.
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