Proactive adaptation of service composition has been recognized as a major research challenge for service-based systems. In this paper we describe an approach for proactive adaptation of service composition due to changes in service operation response time; or unavailability of operations, services, and providers. The approach is based on exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) for modelling service operation response time. The prediction of problems and the need for adaptation consider a group of services in a composition flow, instead of isolated services. The decision of the service operations to be used to replace existing operations in a composition takes into account response time and cost values. A prototype tool has been implemented to illustrate and evaluate the approach. The paper also describes the results of a set of experiments that we have conducted to evaluate the work.

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