Robust measures of animal densities are necessary for effective wildlife management. Leopards (Panthera pardus) and spotted hyenas (Crocuta Crocuta) are higher order predators that are data deficient across much of their East African range and in Uganda, excepting for one peer-reviewed study on hyenas, there are presently no credible population estimates for these species. A lack of information on the population status and even baseline densities of these species has ramifications as leopards are drawcards for the photo-tourism industry, and along with hyenas are often responsible for livestock depredations from pastoralist communities. Leopards are also sometimes hunted for sport. Establishing baseline density estimates for these species is urgently needed not only for population monitoring purposes, but in the design of sustainable management offtakes, and in assessing certain conservation interventions like financial compensation for livestock depredation. Accordingly, we ran a single-season survey of these carnivores in the Lake Mburo National Park of south-western Uganda using 60 remote camera traps distributed in a paired format at 30 locations. We analysed hyena and leopard detections under a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) modelling framework to estimate their densities. This small national park (370 km2) is surrounded by Bahima pastoralist communities with high densities of cattle on the park edge (with regular park incursions). Leopard densities were estimated at 6.31 individuals/100 km2 (posterior SD = 1.47, 95% CI [3.75–9.20]), and spotted hyena densities were 10.99 individuals/100 km2, but with wide confidence intervals (posterior SD = 3.35, 95% CI [5.63–17.37]). Leopard and spotted hyena abundance within the boundaries of the national park were 24.87 (posterior SD 7.78) and 39.07 individuals (posterior = SD 13.51) respectively. Leopard densities were on the middle end of SECR studies published in the peer-reviewed literature over the last 5 years while spotted hyena densities were some of the first reported in the literature using SECR, and similar to a study in Botswana which reported 11.80 spotted hyenas/100 km2. Densities were not noticeably lower at the park edge, and in the southwest of our study site, despite repeated cattle incursions into these areas. We postulate that the relatively high densities of both species in the region could be owed to impala Aepyceros melampus densities ranging from 16.6–25.6 impala/km2. Another, potential explanatory variable (albeit a speculative one) is the absence of interspecific competition from African lions (Panthera leo), which became functionally extinct (there is only one male lion present) in the park nearly two decades ago. This study provides the first robust population estimate of these species anywhere in Uganda and suggests leopards and spotted hyenas continue to persist in the highly modified landscape of Lake Mburo National Park.

The conflict of large carnivores and agro-pastoral communities is a key driver of carnivore decline globally. The East African state of Uganda relies heavily on tourism as a GDP contributor and large carnivores are important for generating visitor revenue in its national parks. African leopards, spotted hyenas and African lions are three species that draw significant tourist attention but also cause damage to the livestock of human communities living on Ugandan national park edges. A private safari lodge in the Lake Mburo National Park has been using a financial compensation scheme in an attempt to stem conflict between these species and human communities living in the region since 2009. Financial compensations have produced mixed results with some studies reporting successes in reducing carnivore deaths, while others warn against their use, citing moral hazard, financial unsustainability and weakened protection of livestock by farmers. We sought to assess the characteristics of this compensation scheme and the patterns of conflict between Bahima pastoralist communities and carnivores that the scheme aims to mitigate. Using a dataset of 1,102 leopard and hyena depredation events (January 2009-December 2018) we found that spotted hyenas were responsible for the overwhelming majority of livestock depredation (69%) around Lake Mburo. Depredations occurred mostly at night (97% and 89% of all depredation for spotted hyenas and leopards respectively) and inside livestock protective pens (bomas). Depredation was more likely to occur in rugged areas, closer to human settlements, and the national park border, and further away from water. We could find no evidence of seasonality in depredation events. Our most important, albeit worrying result was that conflict had increased dramatically over time and the number of depredation claims had tripled in the period from 2014-2018 when compared to 2009-2013, risking financial unsustainability of the scheme. Our results are important for future conservation stakeholders attempting to implement financial compensation in the broader Ugandan landscape. They suggest