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The overlap of generations of coffee berry borer (CBB), Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) under field conditions in countries like Colombia hinders the construction of life tables by the sampling of natural populations. In this paper, a field methodology to carry out regular measurements of CBB cohorts inside coffee berries of different ages until harvest, both in coffee trees and in infested berries placed on the ground, is developed and used to compare the life history parameters of CBB. Populations with berries at six ages in three experimental stations (without CBB control) and in a commercial farm in Colombia (with chemical CBB control regularly carried out) were used. The duration of the pre-oviposition period as well as the mortality and survival rates of founder females and the proportion of founders leaving infested berries were strongly influenced by the consistency of berries, with optimum conditions for CBB reproduction as from 120-150 days after flowering. No differences were found between stations for the number of CBB developmental stages; but they had larger values than the commercial farm. The latter also had more than twice the average rate of founders leaving infested berries recorded in the stations. Survival functions (cumulative probabilities of survival) for the pest differed among treatments and between the plant and ground micro-environments. Age of berries at infestation was positively related to the intrinsic rate of increase of borer population; whilst generation time and doubling time were inversely related. No differences were found between sites for the main demographic parameters of the pest. Key words: coffee berry borer, population parameters, integrated pest management Tabela de vida de Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) em relação à fenologia do fruto de café, sob condições de campo, na Colômbia RESUMO: A superposição de gerações da broca do café, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) em condições de campo em países como a Colômbia dificulta a confecção de tabelas de vida pela amostragem de populações naturais. Desenvolveu-se uma metodologia de campo para realizar medições regulares de coortes da broca em frutos de café de diferentes idades até a colheita, tanto nas plantas quanto em frutos infestados colocados no solo. O método é usado para comparar parâmetros populacionais da praga em frutos de seis idades, em três estações experimentais (sem controle da praga) e em uma fazenda comercial (com controle químico da praga), na Colômbia. A duração do período de pre-oviposição, assim como as taxas de mortalidade e sobrevivência das fêmeas fundadoras e a proporção de fêmeas fundadoras que abandonaram frutos infestados foram fortemente influenciadas pela consistência dos frutos, com condições ótimas para a reprodução da praga a partir de 120-150 dias depois da floração. Não houve diferenças entre estações para o número de estágios de desenvolvimento da praga, mas os valores nestas foram maiores que na fazenda comercial. Esta última teve uma taxa de frutos abandonados duas vezes maior que a...

SUMMARYThe design of efficient monitoring networks is critical for a better understanding of environmental, ecological, and epidemiological processes. In this paper, we develop for the optimal design of monitoring networks a new hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) which combines the standard genetic algorithm (GA) with a local search (LS) operator. We compare the performance of our HGA with two other stochastic search algorithms, a simulated annealing (SA) algorithm and a standard GA. Specifically, we consider the reduction of pre-existing large-scale monitoring networks, when the optimality criterion is the maximization of the entropy of the included stations. The algorithms were tested on a set of simulated datasets of different sizes, as well as on a real application involving the downsize of a large-scale environmental monitoring network. In each of the cases considered the HGA outperformed the other two algorithms.

Ten-year seasonal climate reforecasts over South America are obtained using the Eta Regional Climate Model at 40 km resolution, driven by the large-scale forcing from the global atmospheric model of the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies. The objective of this work is to evaluate these regional reforecasts. The dataset is comprised of four-month seasonal forecasts performed on a monthly basis between 2001 and 2010. An ensemble of fi ve members is constructed from fi ve slightly different initial conditions to partially reduce the uncertainty in the seasonal forecasts. The seasonal mean precipitation and 2-meter temperature forecasts are compared with the observations. The comparison shows that, in general, forecasted precipitation is underestimated in the central part of the continent in the austral summer, whereas the forecasted 2 meter temperature is underestimated in most parts of the continent and throughout the year. Skill scores show higher skill in the northern part of the continent and lower skill in the southern part of the continent, but mixed skill signs are seen in the central part of the continent. During the El Niño and La Niña seasons, the forecast skill scores clearly increase. The downscaling of the Eta model seasonal forecasts provides added value over the driver global model forecasts, especially during rainy periods.

The study of pest distributions in space and time in agricultural systems provides important information for the optimization of integrated pest management programs and for the planning of experiments. Two statistical problems commonly associated to the space-time modelling of data that hinder its implementation are the excess of zero counts and the presence of missing values due to the adopted sampling scheme. These problems are considered in the present article. Data of coffee berry borer infestation collected under Colombian field conditions are used to study the spatio-temporal evolution of the pest infestation. The dispersion of the pest starting from initial focuses of infestation was modelled considering linear and quadratic infestation growth trends as well as different combinations of random effects representing both spatially and not spatially structured variability. The analysis was accomplished under a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The missing values were dealt with by means of multiple imputation. Additionally, a mixture model was proposed to take into account the excess of zeroes in the beginning of the infestation. In general, quadratic models had a better fit than linear models. The use of spatially structured parameters also allowed a clearer identification of the temporal increase or decrease of infestation patterns. However, neither of the space-time models based on standard distributions was able to properly describe the excess of zero counts in the beginning of the infestation. This overdispersed pattern was correctly modelled by the mixture space-time models, which had a better performance than their counterpart without a mixture component. Key words: Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, risk maps, mixture model, zero inflated model, multiple imputation MODELAGEM ESPAÇO-TEMPORAL DO PADRÃO DE INFESTAÇÃO DA BROCA DO CAFÉ LEVANDO EM CONSIDERAÇÃO EXCESSO DE ZEROS E DADOS FALTANTESRESUMO: O estudo da distribuição de pragas em espaço e tempo em sistemas agrícolas fornece informação importante para a otimização de programas de manejo integrado de pragas e para o planejamento de experimentos. Dois problemas estatísticos comumente associados à modelagem espaço-temporal desse tipo de dados que dificultam sua implementação são o excesso de zeros nas contagens e a presença de dados faltantes devido ao esquema de amostragem adotado. Esses problemas são considerados no presente artigo. Para estudar a evolução da infestação da broca do café a partir de focos iniciais de infestação foram usados dados de infestação da praga coletados em condições de campo na Colômbia. Foram considerados modelos com tendência de crescimento da infestação linear e quadrática, assim como diferentes combinações de efeitos aleatórios representando variabilidade espacialmente estruturada e não estruturada. As análises foram feitas sob uma abordagem Bayesiana hierárquica. O método de imputação múltipla foi usado para abordar o problema de dados faltantes. Adicionalmente, foi proposto um modelo de mistura para levar em con...