This paper explores the watershed land use and ecosystem services value (ESV) space-time evolution characteristics in the Tarim River Basin in China’s arid northwest. The study applies spatial correlation analysis using Landsat TM remote sensing images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018. The land use data are extracted and the ESV coefficients are adjusted accordingly. The results show as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2018, land use in the Tarim River Basin changed significantly. Construction land, cultivated land, and water exhibited an increasing trend, while grassland, forest land, and water indicated a decreasing trend. Construction land increased the most, while water decreased the most. (2) Overall, ESV in the Tarim Basin charted a downward trend, from 872.884 billion RMB in 1990 to 767.165 billion RMB in 2018. From 2015 to 2018, the Basin’s ESV suffered the largest declines, with grassland ESV accounting for over 39% of the loss and adjustment services accounting for over 62%. (3) During the study period, the spatial distribution of ESV in the study area showed spatial distribution characterized that was either high in all directions or low in the middle, with significant positive spatial autocorrelation. The spatial distribution of ESV dynamic changes showed that ESV value-added regions were distributed in the southeast portion of the study area, while the ESV loss regions were distributed in the western and northern portions of the study area.

Land-use and cover change is an important indicator for exploring global change trends, with in-depth research on land use and its driving factors being of particular significance in forging ecologically sustainable development. The present work used the Tarim River Basin as the study area, while the land-use transfer matrix, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), regional center-of-gravity model, and night-time-light remote-sensing mutual correction method were employed to explore temporal and spatial characteristics of land-use change and its driving factors. The results show the following. (1) From 1990 to 2018, land-use types in the study area significantly changed, with the cultivated land increasing by 73.9% and grassland area decreasing at a rate of 6.38 × 104 hm2 per year. (2) Areas with a natural vegetation NDVI above 0.2 appeared to follow a growth trend, with an area growth of 259.12 × 104 hm2 at a rate of 14.39 × 104 hm2/a. Average annual temperature and precipitation showed a fluctuating upward trend. (3) The center of gravity of land-use type area moved significantly. The center of gravity of cultivated land was moving in the same direction as the GDP and population center of gravity, migrating to the northeast. The migration distance of the center of gravity of cultivated land area was 212.59 km, the center of gravity migration rate of GDP was 14.44 km/a, and the population center of gravity was 812.21 km. (4) During the study period, the brightness of night lights in the study area was distributed in a circular shape, with more in the northwest and less in the southeast. Brightness gradually increased and showed an expansion trend, increasing from 0.3% to 6.3%. Among the influencing factors of spatial change of land-use change, natural factors such as climate change were related to the process of land-use/-cover change in the Tarim River Basin. Overall, human activities had the most obvious impact on land-use change.

Based on the data on land-use change in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020, this study uses a combination of land-use dynamics, the equivalence factor method, the sensitivity index, and a spatial correlation study to quantitatively analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of land-use change and ecosystem service values in the study area from 1990 to 2020. We also use a geographic probe model to explore the driving mechanism of the spatial variation of ecosystem service values in Xinjiang. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) land use in the Xinjiang region from 1990 to 2020 shows a more drastic change, with the main characteristics being an increase in the area of arable land and construction land, and a decrease in the area of forest and grassland, water, and unused land; and (2) with the change in the land-use types, the total value of the ESV in the Xinjiang region from 1990 to 2020 showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, with an average annual contribution value of about 13,730.33 × 108 yuan and a cumulative loss of about 1741.00 × 108 yuan in the last 30a. The value of each individual ecosystem service was dominated by functions such as waste treatment and water connotation. Based on the analysis of the geographic probe model, we found that the single factor influence degree of the ESV was HAI > NDVI > precipitation > GDP > temperature > elevation > population density > slope, and the overall ecosystem service value in the Xinjiang region showed a decreasing trend due to the interaction coefficients of natural factors and socio-economic factors.

Monitoring the interannual changes in land use and the temporal and spatial characteristics of the ecosystem services value (ESV) can help to comprehensively and objectively understand the distribution of regional ecological patterns. The mountain–oasis–desert transition zone in the northern Tianshan Mountain region of Xinjiang, China, is a geographically unique area with a highly sensitive ecosystem. As a data source, the study uses Landsat TM images from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018 along with GIS-extracted data to calculate the dynamic degree of land use. As well, the spatial and temporal patterns of land use change and ESV are quantitatively analyzed by using the equivalent factor method, sensitivity index, and spatial correlation studies. The results reveal the following: (1) From 1990 to 2018, the land use changes in the northern Tianshans are relatively drastic, mainly due to the increase in cultivated land, grassland and construction land, and the decrease in forest land, water, and unused land. (2) The ESV increases and then decreases, for a total loss of about 271.63 × 108 yuan. The largest decrease is in forest value, and the largest increase (around 129.94%) is in construction land. (3) The spatial distribution pattern of ESV in the northern Tianshans is apparent, showing high in the north and southwest, and low in the central and southeast portions of the study area. Additionally, there is a visible spatial correlation and aggregation in ESV. The present research can provide theoretical support for the environmental protection of the ecologically vulnerable area of the northern Tianshans as well as for further construction across the region.