During the construction stage of the small radius TBM (tunnel boring machine) interval, the improper control of the boring parameters and the boring posture can cause the horizontal axis deviation of the shield tunnel. In order to address this issue, the TBM segments lining structure of the small radius interval is simplified as the continuous circular curved beam based on the longitudinal equivalent continuous model and Winkler elastic foundation beam theory. The theoretical model is solved through the transfer matrix method, and its applicability is verified by comparing it with the field monitoring data. It is found that the horizontal axis deviation of the completed tunnel increases with the total jack thrust, and the lateral displacement tends to be stable when the distance between the ring and the tail is far. The horizontal axis deviation has a negative relationship with the thrust difference or path difference when the jack thrust in the outside of the shield curve is larger than that of inside the shield curve. The horizontal axis deviation has a positive relationship with the thrust difference or path difference when the jack thrust in the outside of the shield curve is smaller than that of inside the shield curve.