This study chooses the right method to produce demand forecasts that have high accuracy so that it can be considered by PT Persada Nawa Kartika, Kertosomo, Nganjuk to develop future marketing plans. Researchers use exponential smoothing, moving average and multiplicative decomposition to make accurate forecasts. To measure the accuracy of forecasting, researchers used the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The research data used is serial data from the sale of bottled drinking water with the NUCless brand from August 2020 to July 2021. NuCless is a production from PT Persada Nawa Kartika, Kertosono, Nganjuk. Researchers in processing data analysis using mathematical analysis POM QM for windows version 5.2 to produce accurate forecasts. The results of this study recommend the value of forecasting demand for three months, namely August 2021 with 9113 boxes, September 2021 with requests for 13811 boxes and October 2021 with requests for 13811 boxes.

Hilal observation done The Agency of Meteorology, Climatology,and Geophysics (BMKG) on June 24, 2017 at 17 Station Observations ofBMKG for the determination of 1 Shawwal 1438 H get the sighting the moon at Kupang Geophysical station. The result was still questioned by astronomers because in addition to their smaller size in terms of theory, it was also regarded as noise (disturbance). Re-observation at Kupang Geophysical Station withVixen ED81S telescope and Canon 500D detector obtained data that the newmoon position was in line with the calculation result (elongation 4˚ 49 '58 ")with smaller diameter than the theoretical value (67%). This article showed that the incident was suspected as a result of refraction so that the atmosphere seemed to function as a concave lens that resulted in the reduction of the object from its original size. DOI: 10.15408/ajis.v17i1.6224

The implementation of housing unit construction needs to be done in order to control time efficiently. Therefore, the delay of the house will result in inefficient costs. This study aims (1) to determine the scheduling sequence of the type 45/90 residential development project at Perum GIP Kertosono, Nganjuk (2) to determine the network or network in the type 45/90 residential development project at Perum GIP Kertosono, Nganjuk (3) To understand] the critical activities carried out in the housing construction project type 45/90 at Perum GIP Kertosono, Nganjuk, (4) To find out the activities carried out jointly in the housing construction project type 45/90 Perum GIP Kertosono, Nganjuk. This research uses the Critical Path Method (CPM) or the critical path and the Grantt Chart method. The application of the CPM method is used to determine the time for effective and efficient development projects. While the grantt chart method is used to determine the activities carried out and the busiest time in the housing development project activities. Through the application of CPM resulted in efficient development implementation with a time of 84 days or 19 days faster than the total time predicted by the planning team for 103 working days. Through the grant chart method, it was found that the busiest times of construction were on the 16th to the 53rd day because at that time it was carried out simultaneously with the installation of sloofs, concrete columns, installation of floor tiles and construction of terraces.

Pariwisata tidak bisa dilepas kaitannya dengan ekonomi. Di Indonesia, tidak sedikit daerah yang menjadikan pariwisata sebagai tulang punggung perekonomian daerahnya. Seperti apa yang terjadi di Bali, khususnya di Desa Paksebali. Di desa ini terdapat destinasi wisata bernama Wisata Tukad Unda yang memiliki daya tarik pada aliran airnya yang bisa terlihat seperti tirai air. Dengan daya tarik yang dimiliki Wisata Tukad Unda ini, yang menjadi permasalahan adalah bagaimana daya tarik tersebut dapat diketahui oleh masyarakat luas, sehingga dapat menarik para wisatawan. Yang dapat menjadi solusi adalah promosi wisata. Melihat perkembangan teknologi yang sudah sangat berkembang, kegiatan promosi dapat dilakukan dengan mudah dan juga luas dalam menjangkau wisatawan. Promosi dapat dilakukan dengan memanfaatkan sosial media sebagai penyalur informasi terkait daya tarik yang dimiliki Wisata Tukad Unda. Terkadang promosi dengan melakukan kegiatan photoshoot dapat menguras biaya yang banyak, sehingga dengan memanfaatkan partisipasi dari pengunjung Wisata Tukad Unda dapat meminimalisir biaya yang dikeluarkan dan bahkan bisa tanpa biaya. Media sosial yang berbasis partispasi pengunjung ini dapat menjadi solusi untuk Wisata Tukad Unda dalam melakukan kegiatan promosi yang mudah dan murah. Dengan demikian, permasalahan yang dialami oleh Wisata Tukad Unda dapat diatasi dengan pengoptimalisasian media sosial sebagai sarana promosi yang berbasis partisipasi pengunjung. Kata Kunci:promosi, daya tarik, wisata, media sosial

This research’s background was the assumptions that services in the land sector are still too difficult and convoluted. This study’s problems are how the performance of the Land Office of Pangkalpinang in providing service and the supporting and restraining factors. This research is a descriptive study with a qualitative approach. Collecting data through in-depth interviews, observation and documentation. The data were gathered from 15 employees who were the sample in this study. The results bring a conclusion that the performance of the Land Office of Pangkalpinang has generally been running well and fulfilling the public’s expectations. The indicators are (a) Effectiveness, (b) Responsiveness, in recognizing and knowing the public’s needs, and (c) Accountability, on doing their duties and functions that followed the organizational vision and mission. Internal and external factors that influence the performance are (a) The ability of employees, an internal factor, (b) Motivation, (c) Public participation, an external factor that is inadequate in supporting office performance; (d) Communication factors.