No abstract

World is now experiencing the new pandemic caused by COVID-19 virus and all countries are affected by this disease specially Iran. From the beginning of the outbreak until April 30, 2020, over 90,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Iran. Due to socio-economic problems of this disease, it is required to predict the trend of the outbreak and propose a beneficial method to find out the correct trend. In this paper, we compiled a dataset including the number of confirmed cases, the daily number of death cases and the number of recovered cases. Furthermore, by combining case number variables like behavior and policies that are changing over time and machine-learning (ML) algorithms such as logistic function using inflection point, we created new rates such as weekly death rate, life rate and new approaches to mortality rate and recovery rate. Gaussian functions show superior performance which is helpful for government to improve its awareness about important factors that have significant impacts on future trends of this virus.

World is now experiencing the new pandemic caused by COVID-19 virus and all countries areaffected by this disease specially Iran. From the beginning of the outbreak until April 30, 2020,over 90000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Iran. Due to socioeconomicproblems of this disease, it is required to predict the trend of the outbreak and propose abeneficial method to find out the correct trend. In this paper, we compiled a dataset includingthe number of confirmed cases, the daily number of death cases and the number of recoveredcases. Further, by combining case number variables like behavior and policies that are changingover time and machine learning (ML) algorithms such as logistic function using inflectionpoint, we created new rates like weekly death rate, life rate and new approaches to mortalityrate and recovery rate. Gaussian functions shows superior performance which is helpful forgovernment to improve its awareness about important factors that have significant impacts onfuture trends of this virus.