Purpose Time headway (THW) is an essential parameter in traffic safety and is used as a typical control variable by many vehicle control algorithms, especially in safety-critical ADAS and automated driving systems. However, due to the randomness of human drivers, THW cannot be accurately represented, affecting scholars’ more profound research. Design/methodology/approach In this work, two data sets are used as the experimental data to calculate the goodness-of-fit of 18 commonly used distribution models of THW to select the best distribution model. Subsequently, the characteristic parameters of traffic flow are extracted from the data set, and three variables with higher importance are extracted using the random forest model. Combining the best distribution model parameters of the data set, this study obtained a distribution model with adaptive parameters, and its performance and applicability are verified. Findings In this work, two data sets are used as the experimental data to calculate the goodness-of-fit of 18 commonly used distribution models of THW to select the best distribution model. Subsequently, the characteristic parameters of traffic flow are extracted from the data set, and three variables with higher importance are extracted using the random forest model. Combining the best distribution model parameters of the data set, this study obtained a distribution model with adaptive parameters, and its performance and applicability are verified. Originality/value The results show that the proposed model has a 62.7% performance improvement over the distribution model with fixed parameters. Moreover, the parameter function of the distribution model can be regarded as a quantitative analysis of the degree of influence of the traffic flow state on THW.

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