Abstract.To quantify the ablation processes on a debris covered glacier, a simple distributed ablation model has been developed and applied to a selected glacier. For this purpose, a set of field measurements was carried out to collect empirical data. A morphometric analysis of the glacier surface enables us to capture statistically the areal distribution of topographic features that influence debris thickness and consequently ablation. Remote-sensing techniques, using highresolution satellite imagery, were used to extrapolate the in situ point measurements to the whole ablation area and to map and classify melt-relevant surface types. As a result, a practically applicable method is presented that allows the estimation of ablation on a debris covered glacier by combining field data and remote-sensing information. The subdebris ice ablation accounts for about 24 % of the entire ice ablation, while the percentage of the moraine covered area accounts for approximately 32 % of the entire glacierized area. Although the ice cliffs occupy only 1.7 % of the debris covered area, the melt amount accounts for approximately 12 % of the total sub-debris ablation and 2.5 % of the total ablation respectively. Our study highlights the influence of debris cover on the response of the glacier terminus in a particular climate setting. Due to the fact that melt rates beyond 0.1 m of moraine cover are highly restricted, the shielding effect of the debris cover dominates over the temperature and elevation dependence of the ablation in the bare ice case.

Abstract. To make first-order estimates of the probability of moraine-dammed lake outburst flood (MDLOF) and prioritize the probabilities of breaching posed by potentially dangerous moraine-dammed lakes (PDMDLs) in the Chinese Himalayas, an objective approach is presented. We first select five indicators to identify PDMDLs according to four predesigned criteria. The climatic background was regarded as the climatic precondition of the moraine-dam failure, and under different climatic preconditions, we distinguish the trigger mechanisms of MDLOFs and subdivide them into 17 possible breach modes, with each mode having three or four components; we combined the precondition, modes and components to construct a decision-making tree of moraine-dam failure. Conversion guidelines were established so as to quantify the probabilities of components of a breach mode employing the historic performance method combined with expert knowledge and experience. The region of the Chinese Himalayas was chosen as a study area where there have been frequent MDLOFs in recent decades. The results show that the breaching probabilities (P ) of 142 PDMDLs range from 0.037 to 0.345, and they can be further categorized as 43 lakes with very high breach probabilities (P ≥ 0.24), 47 lakes with high breach probabilities (0.18 ≤ P < 0.24), 24 lakes with mid-level breach probabilities (0.12 ≤ P < 0.18), 24 lakes with low breach probabilities (0.06 ≤ P < 0.12), and four lakes with very low breach probabilities (p < 0.06).

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