This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the stock markets of G-20 countries. We use an event study methodology to measure abnormal returns (ARs) and panel data regression to explain the causes of ARs. Our sample consists of indices in G-20 countries. The observed window comprises 58 days post the COVID-19 outbreak news release in the international media, and the estimation window consists of 150 days before the event date. We find statistically significant negative ARs in the four sub-event windows during the 58 days. Negative ARs are significant for developing as well as developed countries. The findings of this study reveal that cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) from day 0 to day 43, ranging from –0.70 per cent to –42.69 per cent, is a consequence of increased panic in the stock markets resulting from an increased number of COVID-19 positive cases in the G-20 countries. From day 43 to day 57, CAAR ranging from –42.69 per cent to –29.77 per cent indicates the recovery of stock markets after a major stock price correction due to COVID-19. Additionally, the results of panel data analysis confirm the recovery of stock markets from the negative impact of COVID-19.
The study examines the reaction of S&P BSE 500 companies to the outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The impact of COVID-19 induced fear of volatility index (VIX) on stock market returns and the role of pre-pandemic firm-specific characteristics in intensifying/reducing the effect of fear on stock returns are analysed. Event study methodology and panel data approach with firm and industry-time fixed effects are employed. The results show fear of VIX plays a significant role in the downfall and subsequent recovery of the stock market. It is witnessed the role of pre-pandemic firm- specific characteristics is heterogeneous in intensifying/reducing the effect of fear on stock returns. Investor attention (Google search volume) and the growth of COVID-19 cases are also crucial to the stock market movements during the study period.
The paper investigates the stock market response to COVID-19 induced financial uncertainty and the role of pre-shock firm-specific characteristics in shaping such stock market behaviour using a sample of S&P BSE 500 companies. Initially, the stock market experiences a significant downfall due to COVID-19 induced uncertainty; although, the market appears to rebound after a major setback. Downfall and recovery are quite surprising as downfall happened when cases were extremely small in number and there was no nation-wide lockdown announcement yet. Recovery happened when strict lockdowns were enforced and cases were rising significantly. Stock market reaction were heterogeneous among industries and various firm characteristics. On closer analysis, we find that some firms are more resilient to COVID-19 shock than others. Our analysis reveals that the most affected were small-sized, high beta, loser, and low-profitability firms as indicated by univariate analysis. The multivariate analysis finds momentum, profitability, beta, market capitalization, age, and book-to-market ratio to be the major determinants of cross-sectional CARs during downfall & recovery period. The study provides evidence of the negative reaction to COVID-19 induced uncertainty and subsequent recovery. We concludes that pre-COVID firm-specific factors play an essential role in explaining the variation in the stock market reaction to COVID-19 induced uncertainty.
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