In the work, a method is proposed that allows predicting electricity consumption by household consumers in the terrain of the Republic of Tajikistan. To take into account the factor features of the terrain of the cities of the Republic of Tajikistan, a coefficient is proposed that characterizes the terrain conditions depending on the temperatures and the difference in the heights of the cities above the sea level. The adequacy of the proposed method for predicting electricity consumption by household consumers is presented in the form of dependences of annual electricity consumption schedules obtained by calculation and experimental methods.
Seasonal fluctuations in electricity consumption, and uneven loading of supply lines reduce not only the energy efficiency of networks, but also contribute to a decrease in the service life of elements of power supply systems. To solve the problem of forecasting power consumption, it is proposed to use the theory of fuzzy sets to assess the effective development of the energy system of the Republic of Tajikistan. According to the statistical data of power consumption for the previous period, a fuzzy logic model with membership functions is proposed, which makes it possible to evaluate consumer satisfaction using the criteria unsatisfactory, satisfactory, conditionally satisfactory, and satisfactory, as well as the efficiency of the consumption mode of compliance using the criteria high, medium, and low, allowing the evaluation of the efficiency plan for the development of the energy system of the Republic of Tajikistan. To obtain and set more accurate data on electricity consumption, calculations were made for the winter period of the year. Based on the proposed calculation model of fuzzy logic, a quantitative component of electricity consumption, the corresponding satisfaction of the consumer, and the efficiency of the regime for nine cities of the Republic of Tajikistan were proposed in the form of diagrams of seasonal electricity consumption. The obtained seasonal power consumption makes it possible to improve the accuracy of estimating power consumption, thereby equalizing the balance of consumption and generation.
Currently, energy saving has become an acute problem all over the world. Due to the rapid development of both the energy and information technology sectors, as well as an increase in the electricity demand, the electric distribution system is facing problems caused by stricter requirements for electricity quality, reliability, efficiency, and sustainability. Therefore, the use of energy-saving technologies, both the improvement of existing ones and the application of new ones, is one of the main reserves for electricity saving in power supply systems. This study is devoted to the evaluation of the operating modes of transformer substations of the 6–10 kV electric distribution network in Dushanbe city, based on the results of control winter measurements and the dependence of the low coefficient of active power in transformer substations. It has been observed that, with a low coefficient of active power in transformer substations, when transmitting electricity from substation busbars to transformer substations of a final consumer via overhead transmission lines (an average length of 5 km), the voltage loss exceeds the maximum permissible values. When transmitting electricity via cable lines, the voltage losses are within the limit of 5%. However, a low active power factor may be the reason for an increase in capacitive currents, followed by the command of single-phase earth fault currents. Due to the low active power factor, the increase in voltage losses and useful power losses leads to the inefficient operating modes of the transformer substations.
The article is devoted to solving the problem of increasing the energy efficiency of urban electrical networks based on identifying factors affecting power consumption. According to the established patterns, a forecasting model has been developed, on the basis of which seasonal schedules of electricity consumption by household consumers are proposed. To monitor and control the operating parameters of the urban electrical network, taking into account the functionality of smart electricity meters, a control algorithm is proposed based on the proposed seasonal power consumption schedules by household consumers and a schematic implementation using smart electricity meters.
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